http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Tue, 06 Jan 2009 07:45:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-23230 Wed, 05 Dec 2007 05:48:49 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-23230 [...] Chart Request In the comments section of my update on the timing the stock market using the rate of change of the 10 year T-Bonds, scood asked for a chart of the same covering the 2001- 2004 timeline: [...] […] Chart Request In the comments section of my update on the timing the stock market using the rate of change of the 10 year T-Bonds, scood asked for a chart of the same covering the 2001- 2004 timeline: […]

]]> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-23077 Mon, 03 Dec 2007 03:20:48 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-23077 [...] In fact, the second week of November witnessed a spike of mutual fund sales which was significantly higher than mid-August this year. As scood commented, there is a huge pile of money sitting in money market funds. So it seems that the crowd has been fleeing the domestic equity market and taking refuge in fixed income. [...] […] In fact, the second week of November witnessed a spike of mutual fund sales which was significantly higher than mid-August this year. As scood commented, there is a huge pile of money sitting in money market funds. So it seems that the crowd has been fleeing the domestic equity market and taking refuge in fixed income. […]

]]> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22922 Fri, 30 Nov 2007 15:05:35 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22922 Some certainly is, but its been building for several yrs. Maybe you nailed it in Aug. when you mentioned AAII sentiment wasnt that bearish because the individual is not involved enough to be bearish. But the sorry reality is that cash is getting creamed these last few yrs- at least if you look at its purchasing power in real goods that we NEED or look at gold, xchange rates, ect. Its also funny that I keep reading that theres no cash- as in, the banks and other money changers have no cash, and--- cant get no cash---- but theres a record 3 trillion in MMs--- go figure. I guess its all just locked up in pure gut clenching fear. So the Fed. is pumping out some more cash to make sure theres enough cash, just in case we need more cash {which we can add to the 3.0 and the 1.7] Maybe when everyone wakes up they'll find that theres plenty of cash to put to work and it might even last a while. Some certainly is, but its been building for several yrs. Maybe you nailed it in Aug. when you mentioned AAII sentiment wasnt that bearish because the individual is not involved enough to be bearish. But the sorry reality is that cash is getting creamed these last few yrs- at least if you look at its purchasing power in real goods that we NEED or look at gold, xchange rates, ect. Its also funny that I keep reading that theres no cash- as in, the banks and other money changers have no cash, and— cant get no cash—- but theres a record 3 trillion in MMs— go figure. I guess its all just locked up in pure gut clenching fear. So the Fed. is pumping out some more cash to make sure theres enough cash, just in case we need more cash {which we can add to the 3.0 and the 1.7] Maybe when everyone wakes up they’ll find that theres plenty of cash to put to work and it might even last a while.

]]> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22889 Thu, 29 Nov 2007 23:46:12 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22889 scood, no I hadn't looked at fund flows in a while. You think that's flight to safety? or what? scood, no I hadn’t looked at fund flows in a while. You think that’s flight to safety? or what?

]]> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22866 Thu, 29 Nov 2007 17:05:42 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22866 Thanks Did you notice money market funds passed 3 trillion last week for 1st time, add in 1.7 more for sov. wealth funds [maybe theres some dbl counting in combining these two and some of the sov. funds $ are obviously already invested] and give or take a few bucks thats a lot of christmas buying power! Thanks
Did you notice money market funds passed 3 trillion last week for 1st time, add in 1.7 more for sov. wealth funds [maybe theres some dbl counting in combining these two and some of the sov. funds $ are obviously already invested] and give or take a few bucks thats a lot of christmas buying power!

]]> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22795 Wed, 28 Nov 2007 16:59:50 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22795 scood, sure I'll see if I can dig it up scood, sure I’ll see if I can dig it up

]]> http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22721 Tue, 27 Nov 2007 21:39:38 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/10-year-bonds-signal-equity-inflection-point-1390.html#comment-22721 It would be interesting to see the chart of that same relationship from Jan. 01- June 03 since we may be entering a similar period now w/the fed lowering rates in rather rapid succession- thanks for always illuminating data It would be interesting to see the chart of that same relationship from Jan. 01- June 03 since we may be entering a similar period now w/the fed lowering rates in rather rapid succession- thanks for always illuminating data

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