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12 Reasons Why This Is A Buying Opportunity at Trader’s Narrative





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Hoo-Kay… let’s see. Why is this a buying opportunity for someone with a medium to long term time horizon?

Glad you asked.

Fund Flows
We already know that the vast majority of investor’s money is flowing oversears, eschewing the US equity market. But with the recent market decline, investors are now pulling money out in a panic. According to TrimTabs, they withdrew $7.6 Billion last week. That sort of panic is similar to what we saw in late February 2007 when investors pulled $6.5 Billion.

Insiders Are Buying
Meanwhile, insiders have been scooping up unloved shares at a pace not seen in 3 years. That was in August 2004 as stocks hit an intermediate bottom. Ask yourself, is there anything insiders know that we don’t? Who would I rather side with? insiders or Mom’n'Pop investors who are ruled by emotion?

Sentiment
Speaking of emotion, while sentiment surveys are not yet in, I suspect that we’ll see a marked decline in bullishness and a rise in bearishness. Only one is in so far and it shows a tilt towards bearishness as fear grips investors. But looking at unorthodox places like newspaper headlines and media stories we can find a lot of negative chatter.

“Usual Suspects” Show Fear
The usual indicators that most people turn to are showing fear: volatility indices and the put/call ratios. And the increasingly popular % of stocks above a moving average.

Scapegoat: Sub-Prime Mortgates
Everytime the market falls, a convenient reason is trotted out to explain it in a sound bite. Today’s is the subprime mortgage market. In the spring it was China’s fault. They sneezed. We caught a cold. While it is ugly out there in the subprime market, risk profiles are returning to more normal levels.

It is not the end of the world as we know it. According to the credit default swap market, we are in full blown panic right now. As a result the financial sector has gotten crushed to absurd valuation levels. Over the long term, this is one heck of a great buying opportunity as people panic and throw out the baby with the bathwater.

Market Internals
Popping the hood on the market and taking a peek inside we see that the internals are also showing panic and fear. At levels which historically have installed important market bottoms. Take a look at the new highs, versus new lows. The advance decline line, likewise has found a high probability buy zone here.

The Commercials
Like the insiders, they know something. They aren’t telling exactly what, but who cares? All we need to do is follow what they do. That’s the most convincing argument they can put forth: money where their mouth is. The commercials have steadfastly and consistently increased a ginormous net long position. Who do you want to side with? them or the little guy who was buying calls like crazy just before the market dove off?

Fundymentals
Let’s not give the technical tools all the fun. How abou the IBES model? It is showing that equity markets are very cheap here. Yes, very. And cheap. Don’t like the IBES? Fine. How about that the market’s forward multiple is 14.7, which is a little below its 20 year average? Still think the market is inordinantly expensive and in need of a fall?

Bond Market
A lot was made of the bond market’s fall in June 2007. But guess what, the yields spiked on the 10 year and 30 year Notes have fallen dramatically. Don’t believe me? Pull up a quote. If you’re a chart and system junkie, take a look at the 30 day rate of change for the bond market.

Traditional Technical Analyisis
Price, moving averages, trendlines and good ol’ support and resistance. The market has fallen to its 200 day moving average, where it has found footing before several times. The uptrend is still intact. And the S&P 500 is right at the support (previous resistance) line at 1460(ish) - check out the graph.

Bad News Trio
Bad news is everywhere: American Home Mortgage is in bankruptcy, Sowood Capital, imploded taking with it hundreds of millions of investor’s money. And just today rumours were swirling of Beazer Homes’ (BZH) bankruptcy. As far as I know they were unsubstantiated. But the important thing is that the negative headlines and fear is palpable. Just this week there was an article on the Wall Street Journal asking if the bull market was over? This cluster of negative articles and media attention accompanies market bottoms, not tops.

The IPO Market Speaks
When things get frothy, the IPO market goes insane. Crazy ideas are funded and taken public. Remember the turds from the bubble years? e-Stamps anyone? Right now though we have a healthy IPO market. One that is open and functioning without being irrationally exuberant. That bodes well for the market in general as this study from Thomson Financial shows.

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14 Responses to “12 Reasons Why This Is A Buying Opportunity”  

  1. 1 DUMBO

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    Proof of point no 2 “Insiders Are Buying” ?

  2. 2 Robert L.

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    Babak,

    Excellent post as always. Seems a lot of people are looking for a counter trend rally and then another corrective wave down.

    I would put my money on the fact that either (1) that corrective wave is not very severe and will merely test the existing lows or that (2) no corrective wave of significance occurs and the shorts are caught completely by surprise.

    Also, what is your take on the action in BZH yesterday?

    That move wiped out all of the weak longs in 30 minutes. Someone came in and filled the gap and now has tens of millions of shares at prices ranging from $8 - $11. Those shorts are looking primed for a squeezing.

    On the other hand, BZH is fundamentally in a terrible position, so some of the more traditional funds may sell into any strength from the attempted squeeze if those funds believe lower prices are likely in the intermediate to long term.

    What do you think?

  3. 3 Andrew

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    Excellent post.

    Panic has spread to the Aussie markets as well. We have a few adventurous banks who bought some of your repackaged CDO garbage and are feeling a bit ill now such as MBL.

    Also people are a bit worried the RBA will raise rates again this week, lots of fear around at the moment which wasn’t there not so long ago.

  4. 4 Babak

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    DUMBO, insiderscore.com but you can get info on that from Vickers also (and maybe other sources)

    Robert L, BZH seems to be in a death spiral. Even if it does stabilize it will have a heck of a time going thru so much resistance. I thought it would bounce at 28! Speaking of the market in general is one thing, individual stocks is another ;-)

    Andrew, thanks. As you note this is a global market now and we go up/down together in almost lockstep.

  5. 5 Aaron

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    I agree that those are all reasons there is a buying opportunity, but I think we should probably let this play itself out a little bit first. I am a long term bull, who believes the market is due for a bit of a correction. I am hoping we can get a few big down days quickly and then see a reversal, which should be a great buying opportunity.

  6. 6 Keith Shepard

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    Okay bulls…come Monday, I want to see you people buying hand over fist. ;)

  7. 7 Kieran

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    I’m curious to know where you’re getting your data that insiders are buying at such a fast rate. Are we comparing this to historical rates, or only the past few years? Is this across all industries — or only a few?

    Thanks.

  8. 8 Babak

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    Kieran, look above, I answered it. It is across the whole market.

  9. 9 Kieran

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    Thanks, Babak.

    I don’t consider myself a market bear or a bull, but rather a market neutral, happy to gain from either direction. Although I must confess, I’ve had more success with my bears than my bulls lately (I shorted BZH from 28 down to 9 and BSC from 137 to 103). I’ve been trying to find companies with high insider ownership to help with my long picks. The ones I’ve found, such as MRH, haven’t been performing that well. Can you give me some examples of companies with such high ownership, and a perhaps a preferably free resource where I can find examples of companies with high insider ownership — or even better, a site that flags companies when they start buying heavily?

    I appreciate the help.

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