Comments on: A Tsunami Is Coming, But Is It Deflation Or Inflation?

by: Babak

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 16:56:43 +0000

buzgz, the Bush tax cuts were for only for the extremely wealthy, when you consider the Obama tax cuts for the +95% of the population, the net result is a small tax cut. As well, he is cutting other taxes like capital gains for small businesses, etc.

by: buzgz

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 16:33:17 +0000

Babak, Oboma plans to let the Bush tax cuts expire. If he does this it will be the largest tax increase on taxpayers ever.

Now, find me a reference that says he won’t do this. Get your facts straight.

by: Babak

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 02:57:22 +0000

Purpleswan, TeleChart doesn’t track econometric data. The best place to get this sort of information is directly from the Federal Reserve Bank(s). I cited the source for the above chart. But as you’ve read in the subsequent comments, they have cited the extraordinary circumstances as a reason to discontinue this data series for the time being.

by: George

Sat, 01 Nov 2008 02:50:02 +0000

The TIPS prediction might be more of what the CPI (which it’s based on) is expected to report rather than the real inflation rate.

So it’s a question of how much inflation and how much “fudge factor” will go into CPI.

And there are alternatives to TIPs, some with better tax rates/rules.

by: Babak

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 21:34:51 +0000

taking the other side of the argument: "TIPS may be broken"

by: R.D.

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 13:22:58 +0000

Commodity comeback with a little more inflation ,then the K-wave swan dive to

zool.

by: Andi

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:49:44 +0000

A quote from Cleveland Fed TIPS Expected Inflation Estimates October 31, 2008 This series has been discontinued. We believe the method is not providing accurate estimates due to the unusual circumstances of the current financial environment.

by: TheTraderBlog.com » Mixed Signals

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:36:16 +0000

[…] TIPS -0.29% ?!? First, from Trader’s Narrative ”To get an idea of what the market thinks inflation will be we can look at the difference between the 10 year nominal treasury bonds, and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) which pay a real rate of interest. The difference between them is the forward implied inflation … For most of 2008 it estimated inflation at 3% but suddenly at the beginning of this month, it went into free fall. As of October 28th, 2009 it stood at -0.2945%. The bond market is clearly expecting the deflationary pressures to win over and win big.” […]

by: DaveinHackensack

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 03:09:43 +0000

“the chart is saying that the bond market thinks for the next 10 years we’ll see an average of -.3% inflation.”

How good a track record does the bond market have at predicting inflation over the long term? Judging from this chart, the bond market seems a little nearsighted.

by: Adam

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 02:58:23 +0000

I agree with PurpleSwan. One of the reasons for the strong dollar is central banks selling huge amounts of gold, providing ‘invisible’ liquidity. This artificial supression of prices coupled with vast increase in base money supply will whipsaw from deflation to something akin to hyperinflation in the long-term. unavoidable.