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AAII Sentiment: 50% Bearish at Trader’s Narrative

AAII Sentiment: 50% Bearish

AAIIlogo.pngThis morning the numbers for the AAII came out and showed that 50% of the respondants were bearish in their 6 month outlook for stocks.

You have to go back as far as late March 2005 to find a more bearish sentiment outlook! This is interesting, from a contrarian point of view, especially when complimented by the ISE put/call numbers from yesterday. The ISE showed one of the lowest readings in almost 4 years!

So quite quickly, the stubborness of the retail investor which gave me some pause earlier, is crumbling. The tape might liftoff from here; especially the energy, gold and healthcare/biotech sectors. Or we might thrash around a bit more to really confuse everyone (including me).

In the end, I’m sticking to my position that this is a major intermediate bottom and not a bull trap. In the coming days and weeks, we’ll see if I’m right on that interpretation (or not).

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2 Responses to “AAII Sentiment: 50% Bearish”  

  1. 1 C. Maoxian

    Babak: Do you know where we can get complete, free historical data for this AAII survey? I think the guy at at one time posted this.

  2. 2 Babak

    CM, believe it or not, all it takes is a polite email to AAII. Atleast that’s how I got the data a while back. Let me know if it works for you.

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