AAII Sentiment: 50% Bearish
Published June 1st, 2006 in SentimentDeprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/traders/public_html/wp-includes/functions-formatting.php on line 76
This morning the numbers for the AAII came out and showed that 50% of the respondants were bearish in their 6 month outlook for stocks.
You have to go back as far as late March 2005 to find a more bearish sentiment outlook! This is interesting, from a contrarian point of view, especially when complimented by the ISE put/call numbers from yesterday. The ISE showed one of the lowest readings in almost 4 years!
So quite quickly, the stubborness of the retail investor which gave me some pause earlier, is crumbling. The tape might liftoff from here; especially the energy, gold and healthcare/biotech sectors. Or we might thrash around a bit more to really confuse everyone (including me).
In the end, I’m sticking to my position that this is a major intermediate bottom and not a bull trap. In the coming days and weeks, we’ll see if I’m right on that interpretation (or not).
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Babak: Do you know where we can get complete, free historical data for this AAII survey? I think the guy at VTOReport.com at one time posted this.
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CM, believe it or not, all it takes is a polite email to AAII. Atleast that’s how I got the data a while back. Let me know if it works for you.