Comments on: Another Reason We’ve Seen The Market Low http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Mon, 22 Mar 2010 13:12:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: tony http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38184 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 15:15:10 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38184 except for the last few, the "falls and rises" have not been powered by the information age tools we take for granted today. this info/mis-info availability adds to the magnitude of the market reactions we see today.maybe better to see this vs a shorter moving average, eg, 100 day except for the last few, the “falls and rises” have not been powered by the information age tools we take for granted today. this info/mis-info availability adds to the magnitude of the market reactions we see today.maybe better to see this vs a shorter moving average, eg, 100 day

]]> by: LH http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38175 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:26:26 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38175 No one is going to care how big this percentage difference is when banks and insurance companies begin writing down commercial mortgages in default and people increase the run already in process on insurance companies to get out the earned value of their life insurance policies, which is not FDIC insured. That is going to put the economy back into a tailspin with another massive bout of deleveraging, most likely causing everything (stocks, bonds, commodities) to test (or possibly even drop well below) their recent lows. There is another huge wall cloud building on the economic horizon and those who ignore it do so at their own financial peril. No one is going to care how big this percentage difference is when banks and insurance companies begin writing down commercial mortgages in default and people increase the run already in process on insurance companies to get out the earned value of their life insurance policies, which is not FDIC insured. That is going to put the economy back into a tailspin with another massive bout of deleveraging, most likely causing everything (stocks, bonds, commodities) to test (or possibly even drop well below) their recent lows. There is another huge wall cloud building on the economic horizon and those who ignore it do so at their own financial peril.

]]> by: Jim http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38169 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:33:21 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38169 The only problem with all this analysis is that we are not living in normal times. This truly is the first recession ever caused by subprime, insanely overleveraged banks, an out of control global credit crisis and 30 years or ridiculous deficit spending. In contrast to ever other recession that's begun since the depression, this one is lasting longer and the WORST MAY NOT EVEN BE HERE YET, in terms of unemployment and earnings. The great risk here is that future numbers come in so much worse than expected that we could have one last final drop that takes us below March. The market is being boosted now by optimism over all the government action that seems to have the promise of working. But what if it doesn't? Then you'll see true panic. I hope I'm wrong. The only problem with all this analysis is that we are not living in normal times. This truly is the first recession ever caused by subprime, insanely overleveraged banks, an out of control global credit crisis and 30 years or ridiculous deficit spending. In contrast to ever other recession that’s begun since the depression, this one is lasting longer and the WORST MAY NOT EVEN BE HERE YET, in terms of unemployment and earnings.
The great risk here is that future numbers come in so much worse than expected that we could have one last final drop that takes us below March. The market is being boosted now by optimism over all the government action that seems to have the promise of working. But what if it doesn’t? Then you’ll see true panic.
I hope I’m wrong.

]]> by: delbertino http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38168 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 04:15:36 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38168 Thanx for this access to those much more experienced than I. The briefest glance at the five year s & p suggests we are at relative maximum now. I think. Thanx for this access to those much more experienced than I. The briefest glance at the five year s & p suggests we are at relative maximum now. I think.

]]> by: RICH http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38166 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 02:44:55 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38166 I can hardly believe all these super intelligent observations !!! 2or3 of them were right on. Yes you are likely to see 10,000 before this rally is over, but you are just as likely to see DOW 5,000 before this BEAR IS DONE with you !!! Good Luck, Rich I can hardly believe all these super intelligent observations !!!
2or3 of them were right on. Yes you are likely to see 10,000
before this rally is over, but you are just as likely to see DOW
5,000 before this BEAR IS DONE with you !!!
Good Luck, Rich

]]> by: juice963 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38164 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:19:18 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38164 the way i see it, we need to revisit the lows and there will be a sandpaper effect. where the markets go up and down but over all side ways until we clean up the BS that created the mess. I say sandpaper effect, because that's what it will feel like. sandpaper grinding your account to nothing over time as long as you can stay solvent you'll be around for the next bull to start 5-8 years from now. this is simply a bear market rally, non one should ge thier hopes up or bet the farm on a market bottom now or ever. only invest what u can afford to loose or tie up for an extended period of time. the way i see it, we need to revisit the lows and there will be a sandpaper effect. where the markets go up and down but over all side ways until we clean up the BS that created the mess.
I say sandpaper effect, because that’s what it will feel like. sandpaper grinding your account to nothing over time
as long as you can stay solvent you’ll be around for the next bull to start 5-8 years from now.

this is simply a bear market rally, non one should ge thier hopes up or bet the farm on a market bottom now or ever. only invest what u can afford to loose or tie up for an extended period of time.

]]> by: jack http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38163 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:59:47 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38163 You can not predict the future, from reading past charts. This information is useless. I believe it was stated, to stimulate investment in the S&P 500 stocks. You can not predict the future, from reading past charts. This information is useless.
I believe it was stated, to stimulate investment in the S&P 500 stocks.

]]> by: Isaac LaCotti http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38161 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:52:26 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38161 I heard George Thompson , the maker of Wisetrade ,say that the S&P was going to go to 500 . Qnly he didn't say how soon . He has been in the market for many years and has made and makes stock calls every day that make people rich . I am watching to see if this one proves to be true . I heard George Thompson , the maker of Wisetrade ,say that the S&P was going to go to 500 . Qnly he didn’t say how soon . He has been in the market for many years and has made and makes stock calls every day that make people rich . I am watching to see if this one proves to be true .

]]> by: TTB http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38160 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:51:13 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38160 Great stuff as usual - BUT a few comments - The first 3 samples 1962-1974 were great range trading opportunities, but a long hold thru 1982 .... and why nothing before 1962 ?? You missed the big outlier the market extended below the 200-day in 1932 by -78.7% ... not possible again? I agree with Babak ... we are in November 1929 http://thetraderblog.com/?p=2180 Thanks! Great stuff as usual - BUT a few comments - The first 3 samples 1962-1974 were great range trading opportunities, but a long hold thru 1982 …. and why nothing before 1962 ?? You missed the big outlier the market extended below the 200-day in 1932 by -78.7% … not possible again? I agree with Babak … we are in November 1929 http://thetraderblog.com/?p=2180 Thanks!

]]> by: vbrief.com http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38159 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:34:07 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/another-reason-weve-seen-the-market-low-2331.html#comment-38159 <strong>Another Reason We’ve Seen The Market Low...</strong> A look at historical divergences of the S&#38;P rating from the mean, and what that implies for markets today.... Another Reason We’ve Seen The Market Low…

A look at historical divergences of the S&P rating from the mean, and what that implies for markets today….

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