Comments on: Are Earnings Really Driving The Market Higher? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Mon, 22 Mar 2010 02:40:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: uempel http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56153 Sun, 25 Oct 2009 09:17:29 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56153 Earnings do matter very much - and so do earnings expectations. What might mess up the works is inflation respectively deflation. Having said that, earnings are the primary indicator: there is lots of research on the subject. Earnings do matter very much - and so do earnings expectations. What might mess up the works is inflation respectively deflation. Having said that, earnings are the primary indicator: there is lots of research on the subject.

]]> by: Darren http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56071 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:45:28 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56071 Love your stuff, almost always. That said, these Prechter interludes diminish your site's credibility. Honestly - the market discounts *anticipated* future cash flows. Of course earnings peak at the market top, but if a future decline in earnings is noted from reported expectations, a drop can begin. Come on, this post feels like a Fox News report on spurious correlations in order to rile up the uneducated. Love your stuff, almost always. That said, these Prechter interludes diminish your site’s credibility. Honestly - the market discounts *anticipated* future cash flows. Of course earnings peak at the market top, but if a future decline in earnings is noted from reported expectations, a drop can begin. Come on, this post feels like a Fox News report on spurious correlations in order to rile up the uneducated.

]]> by: JBR http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56070 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:40:31 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56070 The chart does not agree with the conclusion, in my view. Look more closely. The stock market (top half) is basically leading the earnings results (bottom half) by 3-6 months. That is exactly what I'd expect. It's the trend that's the key thing. Yes, if you bought in 2000 (at the peak of both prices and earnings) you'd have been killed, but that's because it WAS the earnings peak - and the market started anticipating the earnings declines that were coming. So unfortunately I don't think this has proven anything about disassociation, on the contrary. The chart does not agree with the conclusion, in my view.

Look more closely. The stock market (top half) is basically leading the earnings results (bottom half) by 3-6 months. That is exactly what I’d expect.

It’s the trend that’s the key thing. Yes, if you bought in 2000 (at the peak of both prices and earnings) you’d have been killed, but that’s because it WAS the earnings peak - and the market started anticipating the earnings declines that were coming.

So unfortunately I don’t think this has proven anything about disassociation, on the contrary.

]]> by: jeromek http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56065 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:58:44 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/are-earnings-really-driving-the-market-higher-3137.html#comment-56065 Prechter forecasts for 2010-deflation, $10 oil, collapsing gold prices, after a brief rally in equities, to where we are now, then the stock market will collapse to new below march lows..etc, etc..of course he might be right, but I don't think so..his subscribers must be dropping like nine pins this year, contrarians are only occassionally, at inflexion points right, he appears to be mostly wrong. Prechter forecasts for 2010-deflation, $10 oil, collapsing gold prices, after a brief rally in equities, to where we are now, then the stock market will collapse to new below march lows..etc, etc..of course he might be right, but I don’t think so..his subscribers must be dropping like nine pins this year, contrarians are only occassionally, at inflexion points right, he appears to be mostly wrong.

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