Caesar: Who is it in the press that calls on me? I hear a tongue shriller than all the music cry “Caesar!” Speak, Caesar is turn’d to hear.
Soothsayer: Beware the Ides of March.
Caesar: What man is that?
Brutus: A soothsayer bids you beware the Ides of March.
Caesar famously dismissed the warning saying, “The Ides of March have come”. The soothsayer replied, “Ay, Caesar; but not gone.” That didn’t end too well for Caesar. His last words were reportedly, “Et tu Brute?” - at least according to Shakespeare.
According to the Roman calendar, the Ides are March 15th. So they have come and gone. Then, why am I still nervous?
Even if we ignore the cryptic warning from our quantitatively gifted soothsayer (QuantDNA Spies Exhaustion Pattern) we have this to ponder:
As you can see from the chart above (courtesy of RMG Wealth Management) for some reason, March has been a pivotal month for changes in market direction in the past +10 years. Seasonal patterns are well known on Wall Street but this is the first time that I notice the significance of the “Ides of March”.
Or are we seeing patterns where there are none? Like looking at cloud formations and letting our imagination run wild?
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