Trader’s Narrative

This market has shrugged off basically everything thrown at it: unemployment, consumer sentiment, sovereign debt crises in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece, the list goes on and on. The latest is the concern that the US and other large Western countries like Germany, France, and the UK would lose their gold plated AAA debt […]

Here is a side by side comparison of today’s FOMC statement:

The Federal Reserve was so careful and meticulous to telegraph its intentions in advance that it didn’t even cause a ripple in the market at 2:15 PM - unless you count a 4 point move a ripple. As expected, the Fed will continue to provide […]

This is a guest post by Bud Conrad of The Casey Report:
On March 3, I heard John Taylor over lunch at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. In his talk he reviewed the government’s bailouts and their effects on our economy. If you aren’t familiar with Taylor, he co-authored, along with Bob Hall, the macroeconomics textbook […]

This is a guest post by Tyler S. Lang:
The US and world economies are transitioning from the initial recovery phase (which usually lasts a few months) to the early upswing phase. Typically, this latter phase persists for at least a year and often several years if the output gap closes slowly. The textbooks tell us […]

This is a guest post by Tyler S. Lang:
Our economy is at a crossroads and in order to get sustainable growth we need to see positive trends in employment. The following are some leading indicators to help us monitor these trends. For the sake of brevity, I have kept the commentary to a […]