Trader’s Narrative

Today’s Labor Department data for June’s non-farm payrolls was -467,000. That surprised many since consensus was -350,000. That should put the kibosh on any ‘green shoots’ talk for now. Especially since the losses were not only deep but across the board for every industry.
This brings us to total cumulative job losses of 9 million in […]

The above is a short clip from the full video, available free here.
For more information, check out the implied deflation in the TIPS spread and the message of Dr. Copper.

copper, deflation, Dr. Copper, economy, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, TIPS spread

The decline in interest rates and more importantly in mortgage rates have been able to prop up the ailing US economy a little bit. But it seems that the short lived mortgage refinancing boom is over and will no longer be able to offer any support :

Keep in mind that the most recent data suggests […]

More than a year ago I called it: We are in a recession!
It was rather foolhardy to go out on a limb like that but with the help of hindsight we now know that that was quite a prescient call. What I didn’t expect was that we would be entering one of the most […]

Every single great bear market has left its own unique mark on the psyche of investors and consumers. While it may be much too early to declare what the effects of this most recent bear market may be, the US consumer may provide a clue.
For the past few decades the insatiable appetite of the US […]