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Economy at Trader’s Narrative

Archive for the 'Economy' Category

Let’s reassess the probability of another recession by taking a look at several important economic indicators:
The Anxious Index
The Philadelphia Fed recently released this quarter’s “Anxious Index”. As you’ll recall, this is a forecast of 36 (anonymous) individuals about the next quarter’s GDP growth, or lack thereof. For more details on the survey, see the previous […]

The uber-bearish strategist at Gluskin Sheff was recently asked to list what exactly would change him into an optimist for the economy and the equity markets.
Here is his top 10 list:

Initial jobless claims below 400k on a sustained basis. This would lead to job growth strong enough to generate organic wage growth.
Improvement in […]

About two months ago I wrote about the extreme sentiment in both the Euro and the US dollar, suggesting that the two important reserve currencies were at an inflection point: Fading Iran’s Central Bank.
Unloved Euro
Sentiment, as measured by the Daily Sentiment Index was extremely poor for the Euro with only 2% of retail investors saying […]

The Paradox Of Thrift

James Montier’s latest missive from GMO is about the macro-economic scenario and whether the new austerity movement will ultimately help or hinder a recovery.
Montier points to the paradox of thrift: if everyone attempts to save more, then this reduction in spending will cascade through the economy, lowering incomes and negating any gains and instead hurling […]

Returning to the continuing debate about a ‘Double Dip’ recession, I thought we would look at one of the most basic models of the business cycle: the yield curve.
Put simply, the yield curve theory says that if long term rates are lower than short term rates, then the central bank is forcing the economy […]


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