Trader’s Narrative

Last week I presented a historical study of what happens when the S&P 500 is this far away from its 200 day moving average. If you missed it, click the link to check it out in full.
According to the study, when the stock market has trended enough to set off this indicator, it has trouble […]

Here is a terrifying interview with Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Doom & Boom Report. I find it unsettling how calm and polite he is as he lays out the case for an inevitable collapse of the US dollar hegemony and the destruction of our economic system.
And in case you think he is some […]

We have yet to see convincing data flow that the economy is improving. At least not as much as the jump in equity prices since the spring low would suggest. However, a specialized index which has an 82% correlation to US GDP over the past 10 years is way ahead of the S&P 500 index:

Source: […]

Source: Tom Toles
As Homer Simpson would say: “It’s funny ’cause it’s true.”

Refinance Boom is Over
Unemployment in Past Recessions
Duration Of Unemployment - A Really Scary Chart
The US Consumer Rediscovers Frugality

cartoon, health care, recession, refinance, savings rate, Tom Toles, unemployment

This bear market we’ve just had (is it over?) has been one fit for superlatives. So why not its inevitable counter-rally (or is it a bull market?).
The chart below is from economist David Rosenberg who now plies his trade at Gluskin & Sheff. In it he points out that what we’ve seen since the spring […]