Trader’s Narrative

We have yet to see convincing data flow that the economy is improving. At least not as much as the jump in equity prices since the spring low would suggest. However, a specialized index which has an 82% correlation to US GDP over the past 10 years is way ahead of the S&P 500 index:

Source: […]

Source: Tom Toles
As Homer Simpson would say: “It’s funny ’cause it’s true.”

Refinance Boom is Over
Unemployment in Past Recessions
Duration Of Unemployment - A Really Scary Chart
The US Consumer Rediscovers Frugality

cartoon, health care, recession, refinance, savings rate, Tom Toles, unemployment

This bear market we’ve just had (is it over?) has been one fit for superlatives. So why not its inevitable counter-rally (or is it a bull market?).
The chart below is from economist David Rosenberg who now plies his trade at Gluskin & Sheff. In it he points out that what we’ve seen since the spring […]

Here’s an a long term indicator that I stumbled on that has been able to time the stock market’s generational buy points very well. It is a ratio of discretionary spending to total US consumer spending.
Click to see larger graph in new window:

Source: Bloomberg
Every time that the US Consumer rediscovers frugality and retrenches by spending […]

I have no idea why Geithner agreed to this. Maybe he thought he would be able to clean up his image or maybe Rahm Emmanuel took him aside and told him unless he did the interview, an atomic wedgie was coming his way. In any case, the digg community pulled no punches in drafting a […]