Trader’s Narrative

It is taboo to even talk about the end of this economic misery that the US has been mired in. So thick is the negative sentiment that if anyone dare suggest a glimmer of hope, they are often ostracized and called all sorts of names. Back in June I asked: Could the Recession Be Over?
Now […]

Today’s point of focus was the nonfarm payroll data released by the Labor Department. While some were anticipating a significant jump (a decrease in unemployment) the consensus was for a flat result. But the data was disappointing as nonfarm payroll fell by 85,000 in December. Obviously the economy is stilled grappling with deflationary forces.
This is […]

At the start of this month, the anemic dollar perked up and traded above its 50 day moving average. Thanks to the dollar carry trade as a mechanism to reinflate the world’s banking system, the greenback had been dangerously close to the 2008 lows.
But while it looks like the US dollar has shaken off the […]

Everyone is trying to come to terms with the surprise nonfarm payroll figures from last week. One camp, lead by TrimTabs, believes they are completely fabricated by the BLS while others tend to mostly believe it.
From a technical analysis point of view, it isn’t necessary to get into an argument about the validity of the […]

Novembers preliminary -11,000 nonfarm payroll figures blew expectations out of the water. A few more of such surprises and we’ll be very close to the first interest rate hike in a long, long time. Which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing given the relationship between equities and interest rates.
But whether you believe the number to […]