Trader’s Narrative

Late last week we got the latest figures from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey. Consumer sentiment continues to recover with the preliminary June 2009 number at 69% - compared to 68.7% for May 2009. The consensus of economists was for a larger recovery but there is no doubt that US consumer sentiment is slowly recovering […]

Below is an article written by Mark Galasiewski, editor of Elliott Wave International’s Asian Financial Forecast. Although it uses Australian data to illustrate its point, the same can be shown with US central bank rates and short term T-Bill rates:
The following is excerpted from Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective. The full 120-page publication, which […]

The mad rush into US government treasury bonds has pushed their yields to never before imagined levels. But according to the simple 1 year rate of change, we may be close or have already seen the end of this “bubble”, as this long term chart shows:

Although I think the bond market will return to its […]

There is an tsunami about to make landfall on the US economy. But will it be inflation or deflation? On the one hand we have deflation propelled by the crushing of commodity markets: oil, gas, gold, etc… as well as the massive real estate implosion across the globe.
On the other hand, consider all the inflationary […]

No question, this was a financial shock that leaves everyone grasping for superlatives. But as measured by the TED spread and other financial health metrics, it is all but over:

Unlike the CBOE VIX volatility index which reached record territory, this spread has been higher actually. I’ll scrounge up a very long term chart. But the […]