Trader’s Narrative

As the Fed Funds futures indicated, we got a 50 basis point cut. And since this was what the market expected and had come to rally for ahead of time, we got a muted response. I wrote early this morning:
“If we do get exactly 50 basis points, we could flail around and end the day […]

Today we’ll be keying off only one market tell: the scheduled Federal Reserve rate cut decision.
I’ve been following a simple model of the Fed’s actions: approximation of the 90 day US government T-Bond yield. At yesterday’s close, the 3 month US Treasury Bond’s yield was 2.280% and in overnight trading they were a bit lower […]

Darn, I meant to post this yesterday but, ran out of time. Now it won’t seem as brilliant but what the heck…
After the recent panic selling, the relationship between stocks and bonds got out of whack in a major way. Basically, relative to each other, stocks were very cheap and bonds very dear.
This […]

You’d have a headache too if you had his job.
We’ll never know how the market would have traded without the Fed rate cut but I have a feeling it didn’t make much of a difference.
I’ve been telling the Fed to cut rates since last summer so if you’re one of my 4 long term […]

Most people assume automatically that a sustained interest rate cut campaign by the Federal Reserve has obvious consequences for the stock market, the dollar, commodities and gold.
The common line of thinking goes that interest rate cuts will help the market, by making equities more attractive relative to bonds, hurt the dollar by making it less […]