Trader’s Narrative

There is an tsunami about to make landfall on the US economy. But will it be inflation or deflation? On the one hand we have deflation propelled by the crushing of commodity markets: oil, gas, gold, etc… as well as the massive real estate implosion across the globe.
On the other hand, consider all the inflationary […]

No question, this was a financial shock that leaves everyone grasping for superlatives. But as measured by the TED spread and other financial health metrics, it is all but over:

Unlike the CBOE VIX volatility index which reached record territory, this spread has been higher actually. I’ll scrounge up a very long term chart. But the […]

Here are some thoughts with my own conclusions at the end:
Ned Davis Research
A very respected institutional research house, Ned Davis’ company relies on 12 indicators covering sentiment, volume, volatility, and breadth. Right now ten are flashing a cyclical buy signal. But a unanimous result isn’t needed for it to be valid. For example, in the […]

NB: This would have been prescient had it been published when I wrote it: yesterday. But thanks to ISP downtime, it comes out now. The crystal ball seems to be working fairly well but perhaps it is time to change my connection to the tubes.
Everyone was waiting and hoping for major help from the Federal […]

Right now the commercial paper market is in an unprecedented seizure. Similar to the TED spread and the “Panic Button” indicator, the spread between the short term high quality and poor quality commercial paper is gone off the charts:

Source: Federal Reserve
If you have scoffed at hearing experts use superlatives, then this chart should bring you […]