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Geopolitical at Trader’s Narrative


Archive for the 'Geopolitical' Category




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The mid-term US elections are finally here. Most are expecting the Democrats to keep control of the Senate and to lose control of the House to Republicans. I was curious to know what the prediction markets for the mid-term election were saying so below are the relevant charts from the Iowa Electronic Markets and intrade. […]


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The dichotomy between fast emerging markets, like Brazil, and mature markets like the US is quite clear. We’ve looked at the growing chasm both from an economic as well as stock market point of view.
Here’s a short video outlining the strength of the Brazilian market through the Brazil iShares ETF (EWZ):

[…]

Iran Blows A Stock Market Bubble


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Ahmadinejad in in New York once again addressing the United Nations today and giving a round of interviews to the American media this week. I watched his interview with Christiane Amanpour and from that it is obvious that he’s keeping to his well-worn script of obfuscation, denial, deflection and just plain old lying.
Since Ahmadinejad attacked […]


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Just before 2010 started, I showed a chart of the average returns for the S&P 500 index for mid-term election years. According to this chart, if 2010 followed the previous precedents, it would be a flat year. The year isn’t over yet but so far, that has proven to be a very accurate forecast.

The S&P […]


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That giant sucking sound you hear in the background is the emerging economies vacuuming up all the cash from developed economies. Nothing shows it quite as clearly or as strikingly as the following map:

Source: Wikipedia
The map shows each country by gold and foreign currency reserves minus external debt. It is based on 2009 data […]




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