Trader’s Narrative

The bears roared back pushing all major indices lower after two back to back positive days on Monday and Tuesday. While feeble and late, the bounce earlier in the week pushed up the percentage of S&P 500 components trading above their 10 day moving average to 63%.
But for all the fireworks, I don’t think it […]

I know I tend to compare the current market cycle to the 2003 cyclical bull rally but you have to admit, there are a lot of similarities. It was just earlier this week when I showed the similarity between the recent tape and the 2004 doldrums when an important breadth indicator broke down. With your […]

Last week, as the market weakened, I mentioned that we were at a point that had resulted in a bounce in prior corrections: Market Falls Into Short Term Support Once Again. But of course, we didn’t bounce and instead fell further. If you look closely you can see that the market did make an attempt […]

If you’ve been reading this blog for the past little while, you’re already familiar with the argument that the stock market has been rising higher on the strength of new 52 week highs. I commented on this earlier this month and not long after, Wayne did an extensive historical study of the ratio of new […]

This is a guest post by Wayne Whaley, CTA:
The ten day new high to new highs and new lows ratio (NH/NH+HL) is once again at historic highs (99-100%) this week. Below is my observation of this indicator and why it is a bullish omen.
Before I present the results, I would like to make the […]