Trader’s Narrative

Yesterday Bill asked me to take a look at the crude oil market. So here is a quick overview of what I think is going on.
Here is a long term chart of the price of crude oil along with its distance from the 200 day moving average:

OPEC Tax
The price of oil, above a certain point, […]

Last summer, on June 2007, to be precise, I wrote that the caution was warranted for energy sector. Let’s take a look to see how I did and what lies ahead for this area of the market.
The energy sector managed to push a little bit higher in July 2007 but it then succumbed to the […]

Sprott, a young Canadian asset management firm, is going public next week. This might be a market tell. Or it may be nothing.
The reason why I bring it up is not because of Sprott’s size or significance to the market. It is after all tiny, managing only $7 Billion - in the world of asset […]

Yes, this is about #2. At least the chemical equivalent. So let’s get the jokes out of the way first…
Whenever one stock grows enough to represent an inordinately large percentage of the index it belongs to, you know there is some major dislocation going on. And it is about to be corrected.
Right now that […]

After flagellating myself for too much bearishness, the last time I wrote about the yellow metal I mentioned that I would be returning to it when it presenting a buying opportunity:
The best combination of breadth is strong long term (200 day average) and weak short term (10 and 50 day moving average). A good example […]