Trader’s Narrative

Not surprising after the extremely negative sentiment in the US dollar index, the greenback has staged a modest rally. In response, gold has wilted. Here are few perspectives on what may be next for the precious metal:
Elliott Wave International
Arguing for the bearish case, is Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International. He writes that since 1913, […]

Last week I wondered if the strength in gold was due to the implicit strength of the precious metal itself or whether it was merely a by product of the weakness in the US dollar: US Dollar’s Weakness or Gold’s Strength?.
It is obvious now that the US dollar is being thrown to the carry trade […]

Proving the old technical analysis adage true that the more a level is attacked, the higher the probability that it will break, gold recently broke through the $1000 ceiling and closed at a new, all time historically high price.
While this got a lot of attention in the media, gold sentiment remains relatively subdued in response. […]

With US dollar sentiment at historic lows, the dollar continues to be about as popular as a leper. In contrast, the yellow precious metal continues to be the belle of the ball. Today it closed at a new, all time high at the Comex. The December futures contract closed at $1045, decisively higher than even […]

I had read about the problems with US Oil Fund (USO) but it wasn’t until I plotted a simple graph comparing it to crude oil futures contract that I understood just how little badly it has performed:

The chart shows the ratio of USL to the crude oil futures contract (West Texas intermediate) since the ETF’s […]