Trader’s Narrative

After flagellating myself for too much bearishness, the last time I wrote about the yellow metal I mentioned that I would be returning to it when it presenting a buying opportunity:
The best combination of breadth is strong long term (200 day average) and weak short term (10 and 50 day moving average). A good example […]

Time to ‘fess up. I’ve been horribly, horribly wrong on gold. So much so that now I’m afraid of being labeled a contrarian indicator!
So let’s see, in December I thought I saw a tentative double top in gold… which didn’t materialize. Instead, gold paused by trading sideways for a month and then continued blazing higher […]

Today’s market got spooked in the morning with the release of consumer price index data showing a more than expected 0.4% rise for January, Almost all components, including energy, contributing to the increase.
Yesterday crude oil futures (March 08) jumped $4.51 to close at $100.01 and today they reached $100.74 - so what better time to […]

This is for all the chart junkies out there, especially the conspiracy theorists (remember, just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you!).
Whenever the oil companies’ profits wane, an “energy conflict” emerges on cue to restore them to giddy heights:

I’d love to see a similar chart comparing the relative stock […]

Most people assume automatically that a sustained interest rate cut campaign by the Federal Reserve has obvious consequences for the stock market, the dollar, commodities and gold.
The common line of thinking goes that interest rate cuts will help the market, by making equities more attractive relative to bonds, hurt the dollar by making it less […]