Trader’s Narrative

This week the sentiment data brings a very intriguing turn of events so let’s get started:
Sentiment Surveys
The star this week is the ever so humble and common AAII weekly survey of US retail investors. This sentiment indicator sends extreme signals every once in a blue moon. So I guess you better check the night […]

The market correction that we’d been waiting for has finally started in earnest so let’s take a look at the sentiment data for this week:
AAII Survey
This week’s survey of US retail sentiment by the Association of American Individual Investors came in at 34% bullish (a drop of 7% points from last week) and an increase […]

It is the end of the week and so we take a stroll through the sentiment meadows:
Investors Intelligence
This week the ChartCraft measure of stock newsletter editors sentiment was little changed from last week: 49.5% bullish and 23.1% bearish. That’s another week where twice as many are optimistic that the stock market will continue to rise. […]

Here is the sentiment wrap-up for a week that saw new yearly highs:
Dow 10,000
Yes, the Dow Jones reached and surpassed the magically round number 10,000. But in case you were too busy to count, this is for the 26th time it has done so in the past 10 years. So that means we’ve had about […]

While his work on valuation and bubbles receives more attention, Prof. Robert J. Shiller has been studying stock market sentiment for a long time. He has created several surveys which measure different aspects of sentiment. One of these is the Buy-on-Dips confidence index which we explored back in March. Unfortunately it has only about a […]