Trader’s Narrative

While his work on valuation and bubbles receives more attention, Prof. Robert J. Shiller has been studying stock market sentiment for a long time. He has created several surveys which measure different aspects of sentiment. One of these is the Buy-on-Dips confidence index which we explored back in March. Unfortunately it has only about a […]

If it is Friday then this is the week’s sentiment round up:
Sentiment Surveys
If you’ve been monitoring the mutual fund flow data, you wouldn’t be surprised to see the AAII continue to show the average US retail investor as decidedly unimpressed and cool about the rising stock market. This week the pessimist camp grew slightly […]

Here is the wrap up of this week’s sentiment data:
Sentiment Surveys
The weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) stock sentiment survey shows a surprising increase in optimism. Of the respondents, 44% were bullish (a 5% increase from last week) and 35% were bearish (a 10% point drop from before). We aren’t near any sort of […]

Today Charles from the Kirk Report hosted a chat with Jason Goepfert. Here is an excerpt in case you missed it:
Yesterday’s bad start didn’t do much to tell us about what the rest of the month may hold. It wasn’t a great sign, but the last three times the S&P lost 2% on […]

There’s much to cover in this week’s roundup of sentiment data, so let’s dive right in:
Sentiment Surveys
The American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey of sentiment doesn’t show much change. About 39% think the market will go higher - that’s 3% points less than last week - while 45% think the market will fall - […]