Trader’s Narrative

One of the many technical signs that the stock market was recovering from the brutal bear market of 2008 was the “golden cross” on the S&P 500 index in late June 2009. There is a lot of granular research based on the idea of “golden crosses” - among them, the fact that when the 200 […]

While the popular market indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial continue to climb, the banking sector continues to be mired in weakness. This important sector is often considered to be crucial for the bulls.
But right now, it continues to tread water and relative to the S&P 500 index, it is performing […]

Last month, based on back to back selling climaxes and sentiment declines, Investors Intelligence moved from 100% cash to 80% long. That was an accurate call as September went on to register a strong and unseasonal 8.8% gain.
Now, as October begins, buying climaxes are outnumbering selling climaxes once again, tilting the market back in favor […]

Today an important gauge of market breadth reached an extreme that it hadn’t seen since April 2010 - just before the stock market in general topped out. The bulls have been attempting to recover since then, putting in unexpectedly strong September.
The metric I’m referring to is the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 index […]

The fact that the S&P 500 index has broken above its summer trading range doesn’t impress Robert Prechter. He made a very accurate call in mid April for a top: A Deadly Bearish Picture. This, combined with the fact that he nailed the March 2009 low as an important inflection point, makes Prechter someone worth […]