Trader’s Narrative

If you want to totally ignore September, I don’t blame you. Historically, that has been the smart thing to do:

Source: Alan Newman’s Cross Currents
The famous Wall St. adage: “Sell in May and go away!” suggests that you buy at the start of November and sell at the end of May. There is nothing magical about […]

Here is a simple chart showing the time I was away and what the market did in that time:

To refresh you’re memory, back in spring, I wrote that based on what I was seeing in sentiment and the technical analysis tools I rely on, that the market had seen a major intermediate low.
And although the […]

The financial sector, as measured by its proxy, the Philadelphia Banking Index (BKX) has definitely broken down. I said as much before the end of last month. While it seemed that the line everyone was watching (level 75 on the chart) might act as support, it didn’t convince me.
While it put up a bit of […]

In the final days of last November, the financial sector looked cheap. Their bullish percent index was 16% and with news headlines about recession, sub-prime mortgages and the credit crunch, negative sentiment about them was rampant.
Things are very stretched to the downside here and we are ripe for a snap-back rally.
The Philadelphia Banking Index (BKX) […]

Continuing with the series, here is the fourth condition of a new bull market as outlined by Jim Stack of InvesTech:
I’ve hesitated to mention this technical indicator since I started writing this blog because it is almost too good. It is one of the few that have an uncanny ability to find the start of […]