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China’s Stock Market: A Long Term Perspective at Trader’s Narrative





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It pays to step back once in a while and take a really long term view of things. Here’s a graph of the Shanghai Composite since its beginning in the early 1990’s.

The chart is log scaled so that each price movement represents the same percentage distance on the graph. This is a must when looking at a long term chart which has trended higher (as this one has). The other lines are a 200 and 50 day moving average.

The bubble we are seeing develop now is nothing compared to the one in 1991. Back then the Shanghai Composite increased more than 10 times in less than 2 years. Meanwhile, so far, we are seeing the current Shanghai market only quadruple from its 2005 low.

china shanghai composite long term chart.png

Of course, things didn’t end well after the first bubble burst. But then again, there weren’t nearly as many participants nor as much money being thrown around back then as it is now.

It took more than 7 years for the Shanghai market to finally reach and traverse its 1990’s bubble top. But when it did the 1250-1000 range became support (which launched the 2005 bull run).

If, I mean, when, it crashes again, it will probably find support in the 2250-1750 range (the resistance in 2000-2001). I don’t think there will be a huge impact on the Chinese economy when it does. Sure, there will be some riots, unrest and general malcontent. But the Chinese government will send some tanks into the street and once again remind everyone who is in control. And in the meanwhile, the factories will keep humming and the exports keep flowing.

After all, when you can no longer flip shares on the market for a profit, a steady job is not that bad after all.

In case you missed it, here’s how you can play the Chinese market from the US. Another way to play a bursting in the Chinese stock market bubble is through the commodities sector: precious and non-precious metals, oil and gas, agriculture, etc. They will all go down in sympathy with the Chinese market - if and when it does crash.

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3 Responses to “China’s Stock Market: A Long Term Perspective”  

  1. 1 Matt

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    Hello,

    Can you, if you have time, please explain why precious metals will go down when the Chinese market crashes? I figured they would be a good hedge.

    Thanks,
    Matt

  2. 2 Babak

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    Matt,
    the aphorism that precious metals offer a hedge in a crash is a myth. Historically they go down with the equities markets. Look at the 87 crash, the 98 crash, the 1929 crash. At no time did they offer succor to investors. They do move, but of their own accord (I’ve already outlined how I play them using the k-ratio).

    Also, precious metals are aligned not only with industrial production but also with wealth acquisition. Since crashes effect both (atleast on a psychological level) their consumption also suffers.

  1. 1 China Stamp Tax Increase: End of Chinese Bubble


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