meant to type 75 and 82 , not

79 and 82

John & Anonymous
You may be onto something there. But in comparing PEs of today with PEs in 79 and 82, you may want to consider that Tbills were 9% in 79 and 12% in 82. The relationship between todays earnings yields (using a reasonable estimate of forward earnings) and current interest rates is not that out of line with 79 and 82

1) i wasn’t accusing you of being a permabull. I was merely trying to establish a reference point. The fact that you’re not makes your info more creditable.

2) I wasn’t being defensive.

3) Your various data contributions are totally inline with my “ABILITY to get OB/OS” comments. You & i are on exactly the same page on the thrust of your info.

4) I wasn’t trying to “remind(ing) everyone”. The easy money has been WITH your data not against it.

5) As a former pit trader of 5 yrs, i’m used to making plenty of mistakes. It comes with the territory.

6) chill out. We’re on the same page…going higher in the IT.

As an aside to anyone, when a move goes against seasonality; go with the move.

yes, I meant permabull. I sense that you took offense to my defense of not being one. None was intended and I have always appreciated your post which I consider to be of the intelligent sort.

In an attempt to not come across as one who sees himself as the sole owner of all market knowledge I was humble enough to point out on the 9th that I was losing money that day on a short side day trade. Thanks for reminding everyone. In my day trading account, I am often long Monday, Wednesdays and Fridays and short Tuesdays and Thursday, and the next week vice versa, and am accustomed to taking lots of small losses and consider them the nature of that particular beast.

My intermediate outlook is used to give me a modest lean in my day trading and to manage my retirement account, and nothing else but makes for much more interesting public discussions topics than day trading anomalies.

In appreciation for the interesting blogs that Babak post for free in this forum, I was motivated to reciprocate when I occasionally came across something that I felt the majority of intelligent readers would appreciate. Once I feel that is not the case, I have plenty of other pursuits to occupy my time.

These blogs discussions can degenerate quickly if we don’t all attempt to concentrate on providing fact based comments. Three weeks ago, I was called crazy in here for suggesting that the market was a buy when no stocks were making new 12 month lows and I am possibly oversensitive. But, I really don’t have an incentive at this point in my career for participating in such dialogue.

Hope “short the sps some during the post expiration week” works better for you than on the 9th when you wrote “and unfortunately short the sps today” trading against your own powerful bullish data.

ps I’m working on the email error but as mentioned, I’m receiving all email (in spite of the error message which says the inbox is full). So if you write me, I’ve gotten it but haven’t had a chance to respond yet.

It looks like your detailed post is waiting moderation so my post might be posted before yours.

“…again to avoid the permabear tag…” I assume that you mean “permabull”.

Dave, again to avoid the permabear tag, tape analysis is a small part of what I study. I expect that I will be short the sps some during the post expiration week, especially if the expiration week gets overdone, but I think the intermediate direction could continue to surprise to the upside.

I, too, have been trying to send you an email for over a week & getting the “mailbox full” message.