Comments on: Conditions Of New Bull Market: Coppock Guide http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:39:39 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Stock Market Man http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-40655 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 06:13:10 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-40655 This IS a great indicator but as always it needs to be put into context. Surely the 5 month rally after the crash of 1929 would have provided a false positive and perhaps a few other instances during the 1930's when the stock market didn't perform as expected. This IS a great indicator but as always it needs to be put into context. Surely the 5 month rally after the crash of 1929 would have provided a false positive and perhaps a few other instances during the 1930’s when the stock market didn’t perform as expected.

]]> by: Scott Morton http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-38491 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 19:55:48 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-38491 It would appear to me that the major economic problem in the world today is that the financial system has been dominated, as of late, by a very few too big to fail financial institutions, which were also the main conduit for expansion of monetary policy. Certainly the "too big to fail" institutions will have to become much smaller and much more numerous over time, OR, there becomes another much more direct process the Fed, or central bank institution, can use to add reserves to the financial system. Is it possible that the Fed's expansionary money policy would evolve into a process of direct lending to individual consumers, based on a uniform credit score system. In esseence, a reversal of the process that exists today where the Fed first adds reserves to the system via large money center banks, and these large banks then lend to institutions and individuals. This revised new Fed system would set the stage for what may be a much more efficient, and just, economic system. Individul consumption ultimately drives business. This newer process may also work well when one considers that the Feds ability to monitor the current money supply could improve as all citizen's accounts at the Fed increase or decrease. Under such a system, banking could evolve into a relationship exclusively having to do with businesses, both large and small. Investment banking and commercial banking may, in essence, reasonably exist under one roof. The retail brokerage business would tend to be seperate. A national sales tax vs income tax may be icing on the cake for both individuals and the Fed(in its read on the vibrance of the economy and need to expand or contract monetary policy). In this new world everyone would have the inherent right to borrow money from the central bank, based on a uniformly directed credit score. It would appear to me that the major economic problem in the world today is that the financial system has been dominated, as of late, by a very few too big to fail financial institutions, which were also the main conduit for expansion of monetary policy. Certainly the “too big to fail” institutions will have to become much smaller and much more numerous over time, OR, there becomes another much more direct process the Fed, or central bank institution, can use to add reserves to the financial system.
Is it possible that the Fed’s expansionary money policy would evolve into a process of direct lending to individual consumers, based on a uniform credit score system. In esseence, a reversal of the process that exists today where the Fed first adds reserves to the system via large money center banks, and these large banks then lend to institutions and individuals.
This revised new Fed system would set the stage for what may be a much more efficient, and just, economic system. Individul consumption ultimately drives business.
This newer process may also work well when one considers that the Feds ability to monitor the current money supply could improve as all citizen’s accounts at the Fed increase or decrease.
Under such a system, banking could evolve into a relationship exclusively having to do with businesses, both large and small. Investment banking and commercial banking may, in essence, reasonably exist under one roof.
The retail brokerage business would tend to be seperate.
A national sales tax vs income tax may be icing on the cake for both individuals and the Fed(in its read on the vibrance of the economy and need to expand or contract monetary policy).
In this new world everyone would have the inherent right to borrow money from the central bank, based on a uniformly directed credit score.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-35809 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 02:04:52 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-35809 Thanks Andrew, Colin's site is pretty neat. I've signed up for his newsletter. The Coppock guide spreadsheet he has is also quite useful. Right now it is deeply negative in all markets. Now we have to wait for an upturn (and hope it is a real not false signal). Thanks Andrew, Colin’s site is pretty neat. I’ve signed up for his newsletter. The Coppock guide spreadsheet he has is also quite useful. Right now it is deeply negative in all markets. Now we have to wait for an upturn (and hope it is a real not false signal).

]]> by: Andrew http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-35799 Sun, 30 Nov 2008 13:28:17 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-35799 Excellent article Babak. It's a very simple and interesting indicator which is based on a logical premise I believe. Look to go long after the market has suffered some hefty tankage and there has been a decent enough time for some disinterest to develop before a new uptrend emerges. The Coppock indicator really nailed the start of the last bull market in Australia. Coppock had more rules which are also sprinkled with the truth of markets in my opinion, information about going long the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors when his indicator triggered rather than just buying the market, which I'm not sure you could even do that well in his day. More specifics about Coppocks rules and latest data can be downloaded from http://www.bwts.com.au/text.cfm?15 Also try searching for 'Coppock' in Colin's newsletters (from the above linked site) as there are more slices of Coppock's wisdom included. Like any indicator it comes with no guarantees. Andrew. Excellent article Babak.

It’s a very simple and interesting indicator which is based on a logical premise I believe. Look to go long after the market has suffered some hefty tankage and there has been a decent enough time for some disinterest to develop before a new uptrend emerges. The Coppock indicator really nailed the start of the last bull market in Australia. Coppock had more rules which are also sprinkled with the truth of markets in my opinion, information about going long the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors when his indicator triggered rather than just buying the market, which I’m not sure you could even do that well in his day.

More specifics about Coppocks rules and latest data can be downloaded from http://www.bwts.com.au/text.cfm?15

Also try searching for ‘Coppock’ in Colin’s newsletters (from the above linked site) as there are more slices of Coppock’s wisdom included.

Like any indicator it comes with no guarantees.

Andrew.

]]> by: Does A Bull Market Need Financial Stocks’ Leadership? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33480 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 22:06:29 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33480 [...] I believe there are conditions that precede bull markets - this just isn’t one of them. [...] […] I believe there are conditions that precede bull markets - this just isn’t one of them. […]

]]> by: paul http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33472 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 04:33:54 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33472 I was trying out the new Excel on a mac -- made a error in the data because of the way I imported the csv (had a 10m ROC). Ran it again and got 5.24 for the end of May and .68 for June 4th close. Here is my Excel process. Download monthly DJI from yahoo (1950 to present month). Delete the final month if you don't want current day as the last ROC. This may be the data discrepancy. Upload to Excel and input Formulas and drag them to May 2008: i. 11m ROC =ROUND(((E13-E2)/E2 * 100),2) J. 14m ROC =ROUND(((E16-E2)/E2 * 100),2) k. Add =I16 J16 l. Weighted AVG =ROUND(((K25*10) (K24*9) (K23*8) (K22*7) (K21*6) (K20*5) (K19*4) (K18*3) (K17*2) (K16*1))/55,2) I was trying out the new Excel on a mac — made a error in the data because of the way I imported the csv (had a 10m ROC). Ran it again and got 5.24 for the end of May and .68 for June 4th close. Here is my Excel process.

Download monthly DJI from yahoo (1950 to present month). Delete the final month if you don’t want current day as the last ROC. This may be the data discrepancy.

Upload to Excel and input Formulas and drag them to May 2008:
i. 11m ROC =ROUND(((E13-E2)/E2 * 100),2)
J. 14m ROC =ROUND(((E16-E2)/E2 * 100),2)
k. Add =I16 J16
l. Weighted AVG =ROUND(((K25*10) (K24*9) (K23*8) (K22*7) (K21*6) (K20*5) (K19*4) (K18*3) (K17*2) (K16*1))/55,2)

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33465 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 20:22:20 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33465 paul, yes, it is probably the key indicator for knowing what kind of market we're in. I'm puzzled why so many have different numbers and results. anyone care to show their work in a google spreadsheet? paul, yes, it is probably the key indicator for knowing what kind of market we’re in. I’m puzzled why so many have different numbers and results. anyone care to show their work in a google spreadsheet?

]]> by: paul http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33458 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 06:11:18 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33458 This is the real deal Long term value investor alert. It is June and this went negative in May. My calculation for May is: -2.3 It has actually had 3 false calls since 1950 -- around 07/1957, 07/2001, 05/2002. Other than that it has produced continuous downward movement below zero until it turned up. Then continuous upward movement until above zero. It does not call the bottom, but shows that a bottom has been put in the DJI and a bull market has been set up. If you allow 3 months for a bottom signal it has a 100% accuracy rate and has only one failure for a 2 month call. Also the most significant moves have been after a confirmed upward turn when below zero. This is the real deal Long term value investor alert.

It is June and this went negative in May. My calculation for May is: -2.3

It has actually had 3 false calls since 1950 — around 07/1957, 07/2001, 05/2002. Other than that it has produced continuous downward movement below zero until it turned up. Then continuous upward movement until above zero.

It does not call the bottom, but shows that a bottom has been put in the DJI and a bull market has been set up.
If you allow 3 months for a bottom signal it has a 100% accuracy rate and has only one failure for a 2 month call.

Also the most significant moves have been after a confirmed upward turn when below zero.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33337 Wed, 28 May 2008 22:52:06 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33337 Joe Bob, you're right. I also like how he is able to fluidly move between both fundamental and technical analysis. There are very few who use both. Joe Bob,
you’re right. I also like how he is able to fluidly move between both fundamental and technical analysis. There are very few who use both.

]]> by: Joe Bob http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33334 Wed, 28 May 2008 18:34:06 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/conditions-of-new-bull-market-coppock-guide-1722.html#comment-33334 Actually, I meant to say that he's not afraid to make bold predictions that go against what most of the other market analysts are saying. He's not afraid to stick his neck out, and that quality has been extremely valuable to me. Actually, I meant to say that he’s not afraid to make bold predictions that go against what most of the other market analysts are saying. He’s not afraid to stick his neck out, and that quality has been extremely valuable to me.

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