Trader’s Narrative

I’m spending a few days visiting family. Here is my sister’s backyard:

Very early in the morning, you can sometimes see deer and fawn peering back at you from the edge of the water. Atleast this is what they tell me since I sleep in .
See you all when I get back.

deer, family, holiday, […]

Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, fell by almost 18% on July 19th 2006. Since historically a drop of 10% or more has been a bullish harbinger I’m keeping track of the performance of these signals. Here is this latest signal:

Following the signal day, on July 20th, the S&P 500 opened at 1259.81. Ten […]

Here’s a tale of the one that got away!
Dollar Tree gapped up this morning on news of a great second quarter earnings report:

The first candle was wide range and although it closed up strongly, it left a rather long upper wick (red circle). The gap up and expansion in price were both on unusually high […]

It might seem comical to suggest that you can have fear of success but such a thing is not only possible, it is rather effective at stopping many from reaching their goals. We, human beings, are a complex muddle of motivations, fears and values. And yes, sometimes we act in a seemingly paradoxical way because […]

Do you remember Didier Sornette? He is the visiting UCLA professor who became a bit of a celebrity within financial circles a few years back. Sornette co-authored a paper and then a book explaining Why Stock Markets Crash. He came up with a very sophisticated model which tried to not only explain the market but […]