Trader’s Narrative

I was really surprised to notice that the 5 day moving average of the Nasdaq TICK (TICKQ) reached a statistically significant oversold level last week. I was watching the advance decline numbers and it slipped my mind to check in on the TICK.

Wow! I never suspected that the Nasdaq TICK would be so low. When […]

One of the bright spots of this bull market has been the oil and energy stocks. It is no secret that this sector is one of the highest relative strength sectors out there. A great proxy for this sector is the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE).
The chart looks great. A strong long term uptrend and […]

I’m not really sure what to call this indicator. The new highs/new lows indicator sounds awkward. I wish some technical analyst with a cool sounding name had created it so we could be saved from such banality.
Whatever you wish to call it, this indicator looks at the 52 week new highs and the 52 […]

According to the most recent Merril Lynch monthly survey, almost 50% are expecting an increase in inflation next year. Although not the highest this survey has seen, this is a pretty high level of bearishness (for bonds).

I mentioned this little known survey a year ago when inflationary expectations were at another extreme.
Merril Lynch’s monthly survey […]

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