Trader’s Narrative

While most people’s attention has been focused on the equity market turmoil, something interesting has played out in the gold market that bears to be highlighted.
It is a myth that gold acts as any kind of a safehaven but what we have seen isn’t the normal, run of the mill bull market correction. This one […]

By the grace of hindsight, the riddle of their weak relative strength is crystal clear. The market was telegraphing the coming correction and the crisis in the sub-prime mortgage sector.

But just as this sector signalled weakness in early summer, yesterday and today I noticed the opposite. While the general market broke down below its previous […]

During this most recent bull market we’ve had four major corrections. On average they have pulled the market down about 8%. The fifth is still ongoing so no one knows how it will turn out.
Perhaps Jeremy Grantham’s theory will be proven to be correct. Or perhaps it will be just another correction within a secular […]

The CBOE equity only put call ratio finally reached an extreme yesterday. This is the indicator which gave me a false alarm earlier. I’ve double and triple checked the data this time to be absolute sure.
Fear & Loathing
At the risk of sounding like a skipping record, this is an indication of a very oversold market. […]

In a recent article, Mark Hulbert talks about the volatility index and mentions Samuel Eisenstadt a research director at Value Line who says that the current volatility readings don’t really tells us anything useful because the VIX isn’t high enough. Hulbert concludes:
The bottom line? Upon learning that the VIX is currently 26.57, we know next […]