Trader’s Narrative

Alright, so by now we know that the ISE sentiment data on the official webpage is wrong. Thankfully I was able to correct it as best as possible. It helped that only the past few data points are suspect.
In any case, seeing how the ISE sentiment helped me turn cautious just at the top of […]

From a historically low reading of 10 earlier in the year, volatility as measured by the CBOE’s VIX has all but tripled. On Friday it closed lower but intraday it reached a high of 29.84.

That’s high both on a nominal basis and relative basis (see graph below). In the preceding two corrections, volatility only reached […]

Here’s a quick overview of the different sentiment measures:
Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment
The HSNSI fell to 8.6% after Thursday’s close. Although that’s not the lowest it has ever been, it is definitely low. To give you an idea, last May it fell to between 6% and 4%. But in the past it has signalled inflection points […]

Last Friday when I found myself agreeing with Jim Cramer, I felt very uncomfortable for obvious reasons. But it seems that the central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve are now on the same page.
It is all over the news that today and yesterday that the European central bank injected billions of euros […]

Other than the financial sector, which is extremely oversold, the only other major sector in the market approaching such levels right now is the transports.
After participating in the Dow Theory buy signal in late April, the transports powered to an all time high last month (5487). But even as this sector was climbing into thin […]