Trader’s Narrative

Last week, I featured a long term chart of the 3 month T-Bill rate along with the Fed rate to show how the former leads the latter. From this I surmised (correctly) that the Fed would cut rates 50 bp to bring them closer to the rate set by the bond market.

But the chart was […]

Speaking of Greenspan and his attempt to white wash his legacy, I found this hilariously biting cartoon (see below). It is of a penguin at a book signing, admiring the “comedic genius” of the Maestro:
Penguin: “I have to hand it to you Mr. Greenspan — you are a comedy mastermind!
Penguin: “Remember when you were helping […]

Here’s a quick snapshot of this week’s sentiment landscape:
Investor’s Intelligence
Of the usual sentiment surveys this one is showing the most froth at almost 54% bullishness. The II bears have been quickly reduced to less than 30%. This is a very quick and very sharp about face.
Put-Call Ratio
Not the usual sentiment indicator but a worthy […]

According to the percentage of Dow (Industrial) stocks above their 50 day moving average, I’m paring back my long positions here. In one month’s time, we’ve gone from extreme oversold level of 10% - reached in mid-August - to almost hitting the other extreme (see graph below). That’s a very fast turnaround which we haven’t […]

Yesterday’s Fed rate cut of 50 basis points (which I predicted based on the fixed income market) threw the market into a buying frenzy. It carried over into today’s session also, but yesterday’s was absolutely breathtaking.
There were many remarkable statistics generated but what I found most interesting was the volume skew. Believe it or not, […]