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2008 January at Trader’s Narrative


Archive for January, 2008




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Here’s a chart of +50 years of the intended Federal Funds rate:

Now is an appropriate time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture because what the Fed has just done is extremely rare.
It has reduced the interest rate by more than 43% in less than 6 months. To find such a […]


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A few days ago I featured the charts of the new 52 week lows for the Nasdaq and the NYSE showing that we’d have to go back all the way to 1998 to find higher extremes.
Contrary to what some might suspect, a spike to record heights in fresh stocks plumbing the depths of annual lows […]

Is A Recession Inevitable?


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As the Fed Funds futures indicated, we got a 50 basis point cut. And since this was what the market expected and had come to rally for ahead of time, we got a muted response. I wrote early this morning:
“If we do get exactly 50 basis points, we could flail around and end the day […]


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Today we’ll be keying off only one market tell: the scheduled Federal Reserve rate cut decision.
I’ve been following a simple model of the Fed’s actions: approximation of the 90 day US government T-Bond yield. At yesterday’s close, the 3 month US Treasury Bond’s yield was 2.280% and in overnight trading they were a bit lower […]


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Like other times of inflection in the stock market, we are seeing technical studies and indicators light up like a Christmas tree. So why not throw another couple stats on the pile? Below are the charts of new 52 week lows for the Nasdaq and the NYSE.
Similar to other indicators I’ve mentioned recently, this one […]




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