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2008 April at Trader’s Narrative

Archive for April, 2008

Yes, this is about #2. At least the chemical equivalent. So let’s get the jokes out of the way first…
Whenever one stock grows enough to represent an inordinately large percentage of the index it belongs to, you know there is some major dislocation going on. And it is about to be corrected.
Right now that […]

Here’s yet another metric showing that the market may be approaching overbought conditions:

For those unfamiliar with this indicator, it is the percentage of stocks within the S&P 500 Index (SPX) which are trading above their simple 50 day moving average. So for example, if we had 100 trading above and 400 trading below, that would […]

As a technical analyst, I normally look at price action exclusively but volume is undeniably, another important element of the market. I’m a bit reluctant to delve into the concept of volume because a lot of what is already out there is bunk.
In any case, here is an interesting chart of the recent NYSE total […]

Here is this past week’s important sentiment data:
Stock Timing Newsletters
The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) was at 27.5% at the start of the week. Meaning that the average stock timing newsletter was recommending to their readers that they be long the equity market with 27.5% of their portfolio. This is where they were the […]

Almost a year ago I asked rhetorically, is the REIT bull market over? My own take on it at the time was that what we were seeing was yet another correction and not a top, as it actually turned out to be - in hindsight.
So where did I go wrong?
For starters, unlike the Canadian REITs […]


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