Trader’s Narrative

Let’s take a look back at my previous commentary on Canadian REITs’ oversold condition on June 27th, 2007. Yup, it is report card time!
Unlike many other trading bloggers who let previous calls drift into the ether I like to keep myself honest by reviewing past calls and analysis. Both to be transparent and to give […]

In last week’s sentiment overview I mentioned some troubling signs were appearing on the horizon. For one, we were once again just below the 1400 level on the S&P 500 index.
But that this important technical junction coincided with wobbly results from indicators like the percentage of stocks above their short term moving average and […]

Although I was early, my skepticism about the growth story of Crocs (CROX) turned out to be right on the money.
The dream turned into a nightmare for the longs with an almost 40% gap down on November 1st 2007. Although it would have been very painful, the best option - in hindsight - would have […]

This week the markets were propelled ahead by the positive earnings of major tech companies like Intel (INTC) and Google (GOOG). Here is the sentiment summary:
Sentiment Surveys
Investor’s Intelligence results are basically unchanged so no need to delve into them. The AAII survey this week shows a reemergence of bearishness with 49% of respondents in that […]

Although I’ve previously touched on the predictive quality of the IPO market, I wanted to bring it up again because what last year was a slow trickle has now dried up to an outright drought.
So far in the first quarter of 2008 we’ve had only 12 IPOs: 5 in January, 4 in February and 3 […]