Trader’s Narrative

According to seasonality, we are coming into the time of the year when it has historically been a good time to be long bonds:

But seasonality isn’t everything. It is only one piece of the puzzle and even at that, it is anaverage of many years, smoothing out the year to year volatilities.
I disagree with it […]

While the Chinese stock market bubble was brewing, a lot of people ignored it and frothed at the mouth about the over-valuation in the US market.
In keeping with that odd behaviour, while the US market has now fallen less than half the distance of the Chinese market (from their respective October 2007 tops), most people […]

While the transportation sector has been going strong, the airline industry - a sub-sector of transports - is scraping the bottom of the graph at multi-year lows.
Imagine how well the transportation index would be doing if the airlines had been contributing or at least keeping up with the rest of their peers. Accounting for almost […]

Everything seemed to be going alright and then GE came along and whacked the markets with their largest earnings miss in at least three years.
Any way you cut it, Friday was a horrible day (for the bulls). There were 2440 issues declining on the NYSE (out of 3211) and on the Nasdaq, 2,290 fell out […]

After flagellating myself for too much bearishness, the last time I wrote about the yellow metal I mentioned that I would be returning to it when it presenting a buying opportunity:
The best combination of breadth is strong long term (200 day average) and weak short term (10 and 50 day moving average). A good example […]