Trader’s Narrative

Here is this week’s sentiment summary:
Insider Selling
The bad news is that according to Argus Research, insiders selling pressure is now double what it was during the bottom in March. The good news is that it is still low enough to mean that insiders do not view the ensuing bounce as just a bear market rally. […]

Yesterday Bill asked me to take a look at the crude oil market. So here is a quick overview of what I think is going on.
Here is a long term chart of the price of crude oil along with its distance from the 200 day moving average:

OPEC Tax
The price of oil, above a certain point, […]

Continuing the installments of what conditions precede new bull markets, here is one that should be very obvious.
Jim Stack says that the Dow Jones Industrial should drop at least 20% from its top. Here’s a chart of the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 from their respective tops to the bottom in March:

Although the […]

Since I’ve been harping on about the gap between the Fed Funds rate and the 3 month Treasury Bill rate for almost a year now, I thought that it would be fun take a really long term look at their relationship.
Here is a chart of the difference between them going back more than 18 years:

There […]

The market got spooked today because of the release of the Fed minutes (April 30th meeting) showed a hawkish bent. First, I don’t think the market fell because of that. I’ve been cautious for a while now due to a number of technical and sentiment indicators.
But the reluctance of the Fed to continue cutting […]