Trader’s Narrative

Last week I suggested that market breadth doesn’t matter, until it does. By which I meant that inspecting every twitch of the cumulative breadth measure for the market isn’t all that useful.
Most of the time, this indicator is brought up because there is a “negative divergence” which then is used to argue that the market […]

If you know anything about Wall St. you won’t be surprised to learn that the cyclical nature of IPO trends can be studied to gain insight into the stock market.
After all, companies don’t go public as a gesture of charity. They do so because they think that they will gain something by exchanging their shares […]

Last summer, on June 2007, to be precise, I wrote that the caution was warranted for energy sector. Let’s take a look to see how I did and what lies ahead for this area of the market.
The energy sector managed to push a little bit higher in July 2007 but it then succumbed to the […]

Sprott, a young Canadian asset management firm, is going public next week. This might be a market tell. Or it may be nothing.
The reason why I bring it up is not because of Sprott’s size or significance to the market. It is after all tiny, managing only $7 Billion - in the world of asset […]

The sentiment landscape has changed much from just a month ago:
Sentiment Surveys
The AAII sentiment survey came in this week at 53% bulls - unchanged from last week. Not only is this a very high bullish reading for this indicator, it is the level at which the market topped out last October. Furthermore, the fact that […]