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2008 August at Trader’s Narrative


Archive for August, 2008



Here is a quick wrap up of the sentiment developments for the past week:
AAII
The retail investor’s sentiment flipped after two weeks to one where bears (45.45%) now outnumber the bulls (30.68%). The bearish sentiment, while high, isn’t at extremes. So a mildly bullish case can be made through contrarian analysis.
Investor’s Intelligence
The bulls and bears continued […]

As gold was rocketing higher last year, I was unimpressed because I thought that it was not the sort of thing that could be sustained. Although I was wrong in predicting weakness for gold and gold stocks.
Equally wrong were the predictions of emboldened gold bugs. After hitting the magical four digit milestone in March, gold […]

Stay The (Very Long Term) Course

I can’t remember exactly where I first saw this graph but in any case, the source is cited at the bottom:

While it is a valid argument that in the long run the market has only one direction, it is also true that in the long run, we’re all dead.

The Market: Then & Now

Here is a simple chart showing the time I was away and what the market did in that time:

To refresh you’re memory, back in spring, I wrote that based on what I was seeing in sentiment and the technical analysis tools I rely on, that the market had seen a major intermediate low.
And although the […]

I read a lot of stuff. And with each passing year, more and more of it is online. One of the ideas I’ve toyed around with for a while is how to share and talk about the online stories that I come across.
The odd time, they are interesting enough to warrant a blog post but […]




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