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2008 October at Trader’s Narrative


Archive for October, 2008




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Crude oil is down more than 50% from its high of $147 a barrel. Where are the peak oil believers? the breathless analysts and cheerleaders of the commodity that warned of a Mad Max armageddon?

Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientific or ideological grounds, […]


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There is an tsunami about to make landfall on the US economy. But will it be inflation or deflation? On the one hand we have deflation propelled by the crushing of commodity markets: oil, gas, gold, etc… as well as the massive real estate implosion across the globe.
On the other hand, consider all the inflationary […]

Dr. Copper Predicts A Recession


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Copper is famously said to have a Ph.D. in economics. So let’s see what Dr. Copper says:

By now you’re hard pressed to find anyone who won’t be bracing themselves for an economic slowdown. And that is reflected in the historic low of American’s satisfaction levels.
Interestingly enough, when the annual rate of change of copper futures […]


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In Why The Price Dividend Ratio Is Better Than PE Ratio I argued that the lesser ratio based on dividends offers more insight. Here’s a follow up with an interactive long term chart.
It contains a massive amount of information so it can take a while to load… be patient, it is worth it. Not […]


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A reader asked that I revisit my dismissal of Ticker Sense’s blogger sentiment poll so here’s a chart to see if we can once and for all decide if this has any value to analysis of stock market sentiment.
The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment poll started on July 10th 2006. But it was a while until […]




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