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2008 November at Trader’s Narrative

Archive for November, 2008

According to Jim Stack of Investech Research, there are a few conditions which must be met before a new bull market can be born. They are a mix of monetary, technical and sentiment measures. I’ve looked at four of them already:

Consumer Sentiment
Formal Recession
20%+ Decline
Coppock Guide

Here is the fifth: monetary policy. Of course, almost every single […]

In order to get a long term perspective on the current bear market, I used the date provided by Robert Shiller for the S&P 500 Index (ex-dividend) and starting in 1900, calculated for every month, the rolling 10 year return. The result:

The chart covers almost 100 years of market history and it has a lot […]

As the market races to the bottom, corporate insiders are racing right along buying with both hands. For the past four weeks, insider activity as monitored by InsiderScore, corporate executives and board members have been in what can only be described as a buying frenzy.
According to InsiderScore, “insiders are more bullish now than at any […]

Weekend Reading: Threat Down - Bears!

Bears are cute and cuddly, until they tear off your head and feast on your carcass. The bear rampaging through Wall Street has taken the poor S&P 500 index down 52% at its deepest level. In case anyone is still keeping track of these sort of things, that’s off the charts.
It is a deeper loss […]

Sentiment Surveys
For the past few sentiment overviews, I’ve been bemoaning the lack of bearishness from retail investors. According to the AAII weekly survey, we did see a huge spike up to 60% bearishness, but then a very quick nonchallant attitude took over Mom and Pop investors across the land. For some strange reason, as the […]


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