Trader’s Narrative

What a week! These are certainly interesting times we are living through. A bit too interesting for my taste. But we can’t do much about that.
Curious what massive redemption requests can do for a Ponzi scheme - something the SEC and the FBI were unable to do for decades. Madoff had all the blinking […]

Here is how things be for this week in sentiment land:
Sentiment Surveys
Last week when things looked a little bit brighter, from a contrarian point of view, I wrote:
However, I don’t want to get too excited because it is just one data point. If we start to see a dispirited response to a continuing rally, in […]

Crude oil prices have dropped more than 70% from their top in the summer. It is almost ancient history to think of a time when people were running around in panic that the end of oil was upon us. Peak oil theorists, or POT heads, were everywhere.
While some disagree that the price of oil was […]

Believe it or not… welcome to the new bull market. Calculating from the depths of the November spike down (741.02) the S&P 500 has now rallied 20%+. Which means that technically, we are now in a very young bull market. The bear market lasted around 408 days and cut the index by more than half […]

On October 9th, as the market dropped into the abyss and then stepped back to form a wide ranging doji candlestick, I quipped that if this wasn’t a bottom, to go find a cave and buy a gun.
After a brief sojourn below the low of that day, the market recovered and is now trying to […]