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2009 February at Trader’s Narrative

Archive for February, 2009

The Money Supply & The Stock Market

On a grand scale, you could argue that the level of the stock market is set by two forces: the supply of ‘paper’, which comes from initial public offerings (IPOs), secondaries and other corporate actions, and on the other side, the demand of stocks which is not only influenced by the sentiment of investors but […]

Weekend Reading: Dancing On The Ledge

To see what you missed, here are just a few of the articles from this week’s reading list at

Legacy of a Crisis - A Generation Shy of Risk
Inside the Meltdown - PBS Frontline
Congress’ new blockhead idea: a ‘Trader Tax’
Bear Market in Chinese mistresses
Chinese liquidity - and stocks - go BOOM
Stanford a mini-Madoff fraud shut […]

Here is the sentiment wrap-up for this short but exhilarating trading week:
As I briefly mentioned yesterday, the weekly AAII sentiment survey shifted significantly. Optimists fell to 22% (a fall of 11% points) and pessimists weighed in at 57% of respondents - an increase of 18% points from last week. While this is a welcome from […]

Once again, the indices are toying with the November 2008 lows and have everyone on tenterhooks about the resolution of this support line: will it hold again? will be broken and cause a cascade down? will it break only to trap the bears?
Yesterday I presented my reasoning why the support wouldn’t hold. Today let’s play […]

Will The November 2008 Support Hold?

Yesterday, the market flirted with the lows that we saw back in November 2008. So that’s the question on everyone’s mind. Will support hold, or will we see another waterfall decline?
If you were watching the action, you would already know that it was horrendous. Breadth was extreme: out of all the securities on the NYSE, […]


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