Trader’s Narrative

We’re getting a distinct message from the sentiment data that this rally, whether a bear market or cyclical bull market (or the first leg of a secular bull market) has overstayed its welcome.
If you have bearish leanings, then you wouldn’t mind comparing this recent 6 month old rally to ones that we saw in […]

For economic and market news and to see what interesting reading you may have missed last week, check out the list below. To see it all, go to news.tradersnarrative.com:

How demographics holds the key to the stock market
The most powerful banker you’ve never heard of
Who Is in the Oil Futures Market and How Has It Changed?
Does […]

Here is this weeks summary of sentiment data for the stock market:
The weekly AAII measure of sentiment continues to reflect a repentant US retail investor. This week the bulls were unchanged at 34% while the bears increased 9% points to 49%. This is a very abrupt change as it was just 4 weeks ago (Sentiment […]

Equities, as an asset class are supposed to beat everything else in the long run. But how long is the long run supposed to be?
Is 10 years enough to be considered long run? For the past decade, equities, as measured by the S&P 500 index have been the worst asset class:

The ultimate shaming is that […]

There are a few frameworks we can use to build a model of the stock market. We’ve looked at the Weinstein stage analysis of the market and compared the previous bear market to this one. A recent Morgan Stanley report authored by Teun Draaisma, Ronan Carr, Graham Secker, Edmund Ng, Matthew Garman provides a more […]