Trader’s Narrative

This is a guest post by Wayne Whaley (CTA):
Men Who Can Be Right and Sit Tight Are Uncommon.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
The S&P 500 has officially closed the month of September up by 3.68%. A few weeks ago I shared some statistics on the significance of a positive September: When September Flexes It’s Muscle. […]

I had read about the problems with US Oil Fund (USO) but it wasn’t until I plotted a simple graph comparing it to crude oil futures contract that I understood just how little badly it has performed:

The chart shows the ratio of USL to the crude oil futures contract (West Texas intermediate) since the ETF’s […]

Last week I presented a historical study of what happens when the S&P 500 is this far away from its 200 day moving average. If you missed it, click the link to check it out in full.
According to the study, when the stock market has trended enough to set off this indicator, it has trouble […]

Here is a terrifying interview with Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Doom & Boom Report. I find it unsettling how calm and polite he is as he lays out the case for an inevitable collapse of the US dollar hegemony and the destruction of our economic system.
And in case you think he is some […]

The is an aggregate measure of the risks within the financial system. It incorporates yield spreads from money market, bond and equity markets. In one single number, it indicates the relative position of the current financial condition via the number of standard deviations from the average.
Similar to the TED spread, it peaked late last […]