Trader’s Narrative

Here is this week’s summary of sentiment data for the market:
Sentiment Surveys
The weekly AAII survey from US retail investors shows a slight uptick in optimism. Those expecting higher prices in the next 6 months increased to 41.4%. The bears also fell - down to 28.6% - bringing the bull ratio to 59%. During the past […]

The CBOE volatility index (VIX) has been trading in a moribund trading range downwards for the length of this cyclical bull market. Recently it scraped the bottom of the channel when it traded down to an intra-day low of 15.23%.
But with the news of Greece’s downgrade from Standard & Poor’s the market tumbled and the […]

It has been a while since I looked at the yield curve. The last time was around this time in 2007 as I noted that the yield curve was flat. That was among many cautionary signals that are clear as a bell in hindsight (isn’t everything?).
If you’re wondering when the Fed will move, it is […]

By several measures, the Canadian real estate market has the characteristics of a budding bubble. This is especially the case for the Vancouver market which has completely gone bonkers.
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index measures Canadian home prices by tracking the repeat sale of homes through land registries and other publicly available data. Teranet, by […]

Recently we looked at several technical reasons to expect the primary trend to continue to be up, while at the same time being mindful of a possible short term correction. One of those reasons was that the proprietary demand and supply gauges from Lowry Research (Buying Power and Selling Pressure) continue to paint a very […]