Comments on: Did Richard Russell Capitulate? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Tue, 02 Dec 2008 01:49:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: HP http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html#comment-34992 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:18:21 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html#comment-34992 Simply ask the "Venerable" Mr. Russell the same simple question you should ask any of your advisers: "Mr. Russell, over the course of your career as an investment guru, have you made more money off your newsletter or your investments? If it's the investments then why do you write? If it's the writing, you aren't qualified. My guess it's the second. Ask your money manager, your broker, etc a similar question sometime. The results are more instructive than any course or advice could possibly be. Simply ask the “Venerable” Mr. Russell the same simple question you should ask any of your advisers: “Mr. Russell, over the course of your career as an investment guru, have you made more money off your newsletter or your investments?

If it’s the investments then why do you write?
If it’s the writing, you aren’t qualified.
My guess it’s the second.

Ask your money manager, your broker, etc a similar question sometime. The results are more instructive than any course or advice could possibly be.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html#comment-6904 Tue, 22 May 2007 01:55:12 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html#comment-6904 Werner, you're right. I suspect that he changed his mind because he saw a tenaciously bullish market. But most importantly, the value part of the Dow Theory kicked in. The permabears hate to be reminded of this or poo-pooh it but the P/E ratios are actually looking very reasonable. This is just guesswork though because unless you get inside his head, who knows why he didn't go bullish earlier and why he did now. Thanks for the link btw, I'll check it out. Werner, you’re right. I suspect that he changed his mind because he saw a tenaciously bullish market. But most importantly, the value part of the Dow Theory kicked in. The permabears hate to be reminded of this or poo-pooh it but the P/E ratios are actually looking very reasonable. This is just guesswork though because unless you get inside his head, who knows why he didn’t go bullish earlier and why he did now.

Thanks for the link btw, I’ll check it out.

]]> by: Werner Merthens http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html#comment-6902 Tue, 22 May 2007 01:30:57 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/did-richard-russell-capitulate-950.html#comment-6902 This is a very nice article. I agree with your comments about the chronic bears. The Dow Theory can be and probably should be interpreted mechanically. However, I doubt that Mr. Russell follows a strictly mechanical approach. If he did, he would have turned bullish somewhere around June 2003 and would not have turned bearish anytime in between now and then. How can I say that? Well, I have tested a computer model of the Dow Theory and June 2003 is pretty solid regardless of parameter settings. So, I suspect that Mr. Russell does not follow a strictly mechanical approach and may use "other, proprietary indicators" for his predictions. This time around he got caught with his pants down and has missed a good part of the last bullmarket. At any rate, I have documented my test methodology and test results. Reading it may be a bit tedious, but in case anybody cares here is a link to the report: http://www.mydatabus.com/5z/tznvy.pbz/Werner.Merthens/TheDowTheory.pdf This is a very nice article. I agree with your comments about the chronic bears. The Dow Theory can be and probably should be interpreted mechanically. However, I doubt that Mr. Russell follows a strictly mechanical approach. If he did, he would have turned bullish somewhere around June 2003 and would not have turned bearish anytime in between now and then. How can I say that? Well, I have tested a computer model of the Dow Theory and June 2003 is pretty solid regardless of parameter settings.
So, I suspect that Mr. Russell does not follow a strictly mechanical approach and may use “other, proprietary indicators” for his predictions. This time around he got caught with his pants down and has missed a good part of the last bullmarket.
At any rate, I have documented my test methodology and test results. Reading it may be a bit tedious, but in case anybody cares here is a link to the report:
http://www.mydatabus.com/5z/tznvy.pbz/Werner.Merthens/TheDowTheory.pdf

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