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Discover The Market’s 10 Year Cycle at Trader’s Narrative





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You wake up, you sleep. The sun rises, it sets. The seasons change. Cycles are part of life.

Since the stock market is just another human activity, it too has patterns and cycles. There are many different ones spanning the short term (daily ebb and flow of intra-day trading) to the very very long term (kondratiev or sometimes: Kondratieff waves). Previously I mentioned the four year cycle and showed a long term graph of its uncanny timing ability.

Since we are starting a new year, I wanted to take a look at the 10 year cycle. The graph below shows the relative performance of the stock market in the different years of the decade.

Years ending with 1 and 2 have the lowest returns; years ending with and 8 or a 9, the highest. I get the feeling we are divining the entrails of the market (with about as much scientific rigor) but from this historical view, 2008 has the wind to its back.

dow jones four year cycle decennial pattern

Here’s to another great profitable year!

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2 Responses to “Discover The Market’s 10 Year Cycle”  

  1. 1 dpmp

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    They used to say “time will tell”.

    Not sure when this “10-year cycle” article was posted but apparently it was before the painful end of 2008, perhaps 2009 too. Of course, I can use this trusty chart to stay out of the stock market for the next 4 years.

  2. 2 Babak

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    dpmp, this was posted at the start of 2008 - right before we (black) swan dived off the cliff. Cycle analysis is tricky because it is an average and all manner of sins are covered by that simple word.

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