Comments on: Followup: Crude Oil Priced In Gold http://www.tradersnarrative.com/followup-crude-oil-priced-in-gold-1898.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Fri, 12 Mar 2010 22:55:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/followup-crude-oil-priced-in-gold-1898.html#comment-34990 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 03:44:04 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/followup-crude-oil-priced-in-gold-1898.html#comment-34990 Elizabeth, thanks - no one was more surprised than myself ;-) Elizabeth, thanks - no one was more surprised than myself ;-)

]]> by: Elizabeth http://www.tradersnarrative.com/followup-crude-oil-priced-in-gold-1898.html#comment-34983 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:59:43 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/followup-crude-oil-priced-in-gold-1898.html#comment-34983 Thanks very much for this. Congratulations on your PERFECT original call of a top (at the beginning of summer)! Okay, here we are at a low of 87 1/2 today (10/6/08). The price of crude in gold has now decreased over 30 % from its highs--it's now around .10, so 10 barrels of oil are worth one oz. of gold. Since its low in 1998 of $10, oil has traded as a parabola-shaped bull market (in dollars). IF we are still in a long-term bull market, there should be a few low-risk buy points that can be put on with close stops. But where? Since the last two major price retreats were perfect 62% Fibbonacci retracements (the move from $17 to $40 pulled back to $25; the move from $25 to almost $80 pulled back to $50), its probably useful to note where the Fib. retracement of the last major up-move would fall now: The 62% retracement of the move from $50 to $148 is right here at around $87. Might be worth taking a position with a close stop. (The 62% retracement of the entire move from $10 to $148 is $63.) Price-wise, gold has been leading oil. Four weeks ago gold was at $740, now $856. Perhaps that's another reason to take a stab at going long oil now? Don't want to hold it much below $85 though. Thanks very much for this. Congratulations on your PERFECT original call of a top (at the beginning of summer)! Okay, here we are at a low of 87 1/2 today (10/6/08). The price of crude in gold has now decreased over 30 % from its highs–it’s now around .10, so 10 barrels of oil are worth one oz. of gold.

Since its low in 1998 of $10, oil has traded as a parabola-shaped bull market (in dollars). IF we are still in a long-term bull market, there should be a few low-risk buy points that can be put on with close stops. But where?

Since the last two major price retreats were perfect 62% Fibbonacci retracements (the move from $17 to $40 pulled back to $25; the move from $25 to almost $80 pulled back to $50), its probably useful to note where the Fib. retracement of the last major up-move would fall now:

The 62% retracement of the move from $50 to $148 is right here at around $87. Might be worth taking a position with a close stop. (The 62% retracement of the entire move from $10 to $148 is $63.)

Price-wise, gold has been leading oil. Four weeks ago gold was at $740, now $856. Perhaps that’s another reason to take a stab at going long oil now? Don’t want to hold it much below $85 though.

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