As for the 3 months Libor, today close has been quite relaxed. This is important having in mind the maturing of 113.000 mill euros in comercial paper. While the 1-day rates had relaxed yet, today they were below the official 4%, the 3 months Libor rates were stubbornly tightened. In fact, there is a mix of positive signs about credit crunch today. The BoE has relaxed his conditions for the banks reserves. Yesterday some banks launched corporate debt again (i.e. samurai bonds of Deutsche Bank). The FED has reported about comercial paper and it was not so bad as it were. This, in the context of the 113k mill eur maturing, are good news about credit “constipation”. (btw, there was also the First Data buyout, and I don’t know how is it going).

Teeun Draaisma is a quite interesting Morgan Stanley analyst for Europe. He and his colleagues have anticipated several market movements, and he is now agresively bullish indeed. In mid-august he made a bullish call, which received harsh critics. His answer: “We know that we are right when we receive so much criticism”

In 6-12 months span they saw a bullish potential of 12% for MSCI Europe (obj.1750), up to 21% in the more bullish scenario. Since their bullish call the MSCI Europe is 7,7%. Their preferred sectors are tech&telecom, health, finances. They don’t like consumer sector.

They speculate that, if credit crunch crisis is happyly overcome, it might develop a “epic-euphoric” bullish market with a “undestructible bullish trend” attitude, strong participation of retail investors, and the like. In a word, the terminal stage of this bullish market.

Their alternative, less probable bearish scenario would be one with markets falling -50% up to -70%. Finally, the least probable scenario would be a muddle-through one.

Well, I see at most a mixed case for gold. I was not aware of that Bullish Consensus rating. There is the debate about BC scores being contrarian or predictive, and I have not a final analysis about it. (After all, it seems it is not impossible to find a panel of experts with a good track record, as Frank Hulbert show us in the market timers analysis you quoted recently). So far, I have:

* k-ratio: it went to 0,43 in august and rebounded, mixed
* bullish consensus: very high, contrarian or predictive?, mixed
* BPI for PM: oversold under 30 and rebounding, buy.
* seasonality: september is bullish for gold, positive

Besides, I say: if there is to be a bullish rally soon, as Teeun Draaisma, Hulbert’s newsletters, comercials, Investors Intelligence and insiders are telling us quite clearly, gold and gold bugs might benefit also. No need for any 2007 crash and safe haven myth for that.

As for the markets, I think the easing in 3m Libor today is one of the most interesting news I’ve heard recently concerning credit crunch.