Comments on: Golden Cross: Bullish Technical Formation

by: Babak

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:05:55 +0000

Stefan, no, he hasn’t as it is ‘proprietary’ but you’re welcome to ask him, he’s a nice enough bloke.

by: Stefan

Sun, 05 Jul 2009 19:07:28 +0000

Babak: Yes I´m using it on the main index here in Sweden, mostly as a filter to decide between sell or buy signals in shorter time frames. A short component is a good complement for periods like the one we have just experienced between 2007-200x, but I haven´t added it in any charts, but that would be interesting.

I checked out Maoxian´s site a bit, do you know if he´s explained the “fuzzy” system somewhere?

by: Babak

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 21:40:18 +0000

Stefan, that looks really good. Have you tried it on other indexes? Why not add a short component to it? That is go short when the slope changes. It reminds me of maoxian’s ‘fuzzy‘ trend trading system.

by: Stefan

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:45:50 +0000

I prefer to look at the slope of one moving average instead of a crossover from another MA or an index itself. Looking for a changed slope of the MA removes some of the fake signals and whipsaws that occur from crossovers. I made two simple charts a while ago showing how monthly MA12 has performed. I´m sorry I don´t know how to make them clickable but just copy and paste in your browser. First one shows S&P 500 and using monthly MA12 (it´s like daily MA200) to identify the overall trend, blue=bull, red=bear The second chart shows an equity curve (blue) for the MA12 and a comparison to buy-and-hold (red). The obvious reason to keep track of a longer MA like this is that you can avoid those devastating drawdrawns that occur once in a while, like 1970ies, 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. Perhaps the next big crash is many years away, but you never know. Another reason is to stay on the right side when trading short term. All dips should be bought when MA200 is trending upwards etc.

by: Babak

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:39:15 +0000

I've uploaded the moving average study from Wayne. Take a look.

by: Babak

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:06:23 +0000

Dave, thanks for the video. I tend to think of hedge funds as the ’smart money’ so I’m not so sure I would have bet against them, except maybe at a crazy point of extremeness. Not putting analysts feet to the fire is one shortcoming of CNBC among many. The Nightly Business Report is the only show that I know which does go back and give updates on previous prognostications when they bring back and analyst or talking head.

by: Dave

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:53:45 +0000

And that would be the same Bartels (look at a daily chart while viewing).

Tues. May 6 2008
“Hedge funds are bearish, and it could make sense to bet against them and go long on stocks, says Mary Ann Bartels.”

Twice in 2008, she stated on CNBC that we were about to see major rallies just before the mkt fell out of bed.

Of course, anyone can be wrong, but what gets me is that she never addressed such colossal mistakes with even an “Oops !”. And of course, CNBC would never bring up the faux pas on subsequent appearances.

As the year progressed it became evident that she had a huge misunderstanding of why the hedgies were sitting on all that cash. They understood that they were going to have redemption problems.

Btw, i have always assumed that she was the daughter of Bernadette Bartels from the late Wall St Week. So i got a kick out of Bob Pisani saying to her on another video “Of course, you’re not a technician.” That would be news to Bernadette.

She certainly is not a worthy successor to Rich McCabe & Bob Farrell.

Regards,
dave

by: Babak

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:54:35 +0000

Jerry, they are contradictory but because Bartels looks at golden crosses going back to the 1920’s while Delisle looks at only 14 recent ones.

by: Jerry

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:14:33 +0000

Are these statements contradictory?:

Delisle adds that a golden cross appears to have more validity when it occurs with a rising 200 day moving average - something we had in 2003 but do not have now.

In the Merrill Lynch report prepared by Mary Ann Bartels, it continues to distinguish between golden crosses that happen with a downward long term moving average and those when the long term moving average is rising: Of the 42 Golden Cross signals triggered since 1928, 20 have occurred with the 200-day moving average in a declining trend or lower than it was 30 trading sessions ago. These signals on average have generated 12-month returns of 13.3%. The remaining 22 signals occurred when the 200-day moving average was rising or higher than it was 30 trading sessions ago. The returns for these signals were much lower and on average generated 12-month returns of 5.7%.

by: Babak

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:25:15 +0000

Wayne, I sent you an email. Send me the file and I’ll put it up for others. That way it is more accessible. I’ve removed the cut/paste you did because it wasn’t formated.