Comments on: Have We Seen A Definitive Bottom Already?

by: Babak

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 02:45:00 +0000

evan, from the tools that I use, there is only one such indicator which is quantitative and fits what you are describing: the Coppock Guide

by: evan

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 02:42:06 +0000

It seems that almost any trading system will work if you trade with the prevailing trend. Have you given much thought on devising an intermediate to long-term market direction indicator? Something that requires no intuition, just simple boolean logic; true or false, up or down.

by: Knife. Falls. Don’t catch. « azeem.azhar

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 09:45:57 +0000

[…] Are we out of it? Look at this chart . I am no chartist, so take these as words for an amateur. But looking at the length and depth of the 2000-2004 bear market, we can get a sense for how long the cycle lasted last time. Even after a hideous day like yesterday, the main market indicators are still not bottoming out. There might be bouts of optimism but there is more volatility (which means sharp drops) ahead. The Vix–which will typically spike at 30+ during the peak of a down turn was yesterday sitting at 26. It has further to go and stocks further to fall. Much smarter people that me suggest that there is a good chance for another serious downleg. See Bespoke, Worldbeta, although Traders Narrative is marginally more bullish. […]

by: Babak

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 02:06:43 +0000

jkw, good point. When the indicator hit the extreme in 2002 it looked as if it was a long term bottom and a lot of people thought it was - only to be shocked in 2003. I think the reason the market finally found a lasting bottom was that it thrashed around so much that it caused a lot of despair for even the most dyed in the wool bull. There was a complete washout as prices spiked lower three times July 2002, October 2002 and then March 2003. I don’t have data for 2000-2002 but it would be interesting to see what happened in the market during those times.

by: Extreme readings? | Rhody Trader

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 13:01:32 +0000

[…] If you’re new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!Have We Seen A Definitive Bottom Already? was asked on Trader’s Narrative yesterday. The post takes a look at using the number of Dow stocks above/below their 50-day moving average. […]

by: jkw

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 11:42:56 +0000

Are we supposed to ignore the indicator hitting 0 in 2002? Or was that a long term bottom in some other sense? Did this happen at any other times from 2000-2003?