right, when looking for a major theme there in the last months since the march market low, one thing catches attention:

Several issues address on their title page Gold, National Debt and/or Inflation. Most of them play fear with the theme “Your saved wealth is in danger! Act now!” For example, the issue of 15 april asks the question “How dangerous is the financial crisis to your life insurance?” (Life Insurance is also something sacrosanct in german investment culture)

Astonishing few issues are pushing into stocks.

One title that also jumped out was end of october:

“Deutsche Bank fears a threefold throwback: SELL EVERYTHING? Interview with Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter: ‘Stay alert!’”

sure, I’m glad if I can contribute:

Here the three recent Focus Money titles:

Translations of the titles, as far as they are relevant to markets & investments:

a) Top Interest rates, Safe Funds, 7% dividends. THE BEST FOR YOUR MONEY 2010. Our recommendations made a gain of 16.7% (Top Line, small print): “Emerging Markets & Small Cap Stocks: 6 ultra-hot speculations for 2010″)

b) You can earn 6% interest for 10 years! REASON instead of GREED. These 6 value investments will double your wealth sustainably.

c) The new world currency: Myth GOLD. Why the ounce will climb to 2300$. Funds, Stocks, Direct investment. (Top line, small print): “Safe Dividends. Up to 8% with Telekom, E.on. Post and RWE”. “Top Interest! 5,3% with Fresenius Bonds”

My interpretation: Wall of Worry, still overwhelming focus on Safety. Recommendations are value investments, and very conservative stocks (utilities and telcoms) Most recent issue has first line on “Ultra-Hot speculation”, perhaps first glimpse of enthusiasm.

thank you for bringing up again this thread to attention.

In retrospective, the timing of the discussion here is outright scary. My observation of the magazine cover indicator in 2003 was “only three weeks later we had the last market weakness before the big bull market of 2003-2007 started”.

The main discussion of this blog entry took place on Feb. 12-13 this year. And three weeks later we had the last market weakness before the big upswing of 2009 (with bottom point on March 9th). Honestly, I have a very scary feeling now how the magazine cover indicator worked again perfectly.

It is again very interesting to have a look at the Focus Money title directly at the market low (issue released on March 11th):

Translation: “Euro shakes, Stock Markets tumble. HELP! MY MONEY!” How to protect yourself from financial crash & money devaluation” And (in smaller print, at the top): “Open real estate funds: The big analysis. Which is the most safest? Which makes a steady 5% p.A.?” (I have to add that real estate is viewed as one of the most conservative investments in Germany)

Die Wirtschaftwoche ist aber der ultimative Contra-Indikator.

Translations:

Cover from 01.21.09: “The best investments without risk. SAFE. Checked by experts. Bonds, Real Estate Fonds, Convertibles, Gold, Protection from inflation”
Cover from 02.13.03: “Lucrative & Safe: Die 55 best fixed income investments. Fixed-term deposits, overnight deposits, money market fonds, government bonds, profit certificates, corporate bonds, convertibles, foreign currencies, fixed income funds.”

The similarities between them gets clearer when you take the whole picture into account: ‘Focus Money’ usually is one of these magazines which most of the time tries to push people into stocks aggressively. Their covers are always filled with headlines like: “The next price rocket!” “Hot Stocks!” “The 10 stocks everyone NEEDS!”. I think you get the point.

These two covers are exceptional during the history of this magazine. Both are the rare occurrence where they changed their tone to “Safety, Riskless, Fixed income”.

I wouldn’t overrate this observation, but I found this an interesting piece of the overall puzzle. Especially because ‘Focus Money’ is read widespread by the so-called ‘dumb money’. And the last time they appraised ’safe fixed income’, only three weeks later we had the last market weakness before the big bull market of 2003-2007 started.