Comments on: If We Aren’t Near A Bottom, Find A Cave & Buy Guns http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html Freshly squeezed market commentary & analysis Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:24:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35112 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 02:24:15 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35112 yeah, that's what I thought too Dave. Why do you think that happened? did too many rely on it? or was it something else? yeah, that’s what I thought too Dave. Why do you think that happened? did too many rely on it? or was it something else?

]]> by: Dave M. http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35107 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 17:58:09 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35107 I have followed the COT report on the S&P 500 (commercial hedgers category) for many decades and have used it quite successfully over those years. This indicator used to work really, really well and I made a ton of money on it. However, it stopped working in 2003 and is now useless. What a shame. I have followed the COT report on the S&P 500 (commercial hedgers category) for many decades and have used it quite successfully over those years. This indicator used to work really, really well and I made a ton of money on it. However, it stopped working in 2003 and is now useless. What a shame.

]]> by: Babak http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35043 Sat, 11 Oct 2008 04:54:36 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35043 Tony, that's a good point. To be honest, it is something which I've <a href="http://www.tradersnarrative.com/commitment-of-traders-commercials-are-record-long-1146.html">mentioned many times on the blog</a> but not lately because it seems that it is losing its <a href="http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png">power as an indicator</a>. Perhaps it is due to alternative derivatives which are substituting futures positions (think swaps). Whatever the case, while I don't want to dismiss it outright, the weight of the evidence convinces me more than any one single one. Tony, that’s a good point. To be honest, it is something which I’ve mentioned many times on the blog but not lately because it seems that it is losing its power as an indicator. Perhaps it is due to alternative derivatives which are substituting futures positions (think swaps). Whatever the case, while I don’t want to dismiss it outright, the weight of the evidence convinces me more than any one single one.

]]> by: Tony http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35042 Sat, 11 Oct 2008 02:44:32 +0000 http://www.tradersnarrative.com/if-we-arent-near-a-bottom-find-a-cave-buy-guns-1932.html#comment-35042 Hi Babak, You bring some good points about the bullish case for stocks. The thing that concerns me is the current COT report on the S&#38;P 500 and other major indices. The commercial hedgers seem to be getting more net short on the S&#38;P 500 along with the other indices. Any thoughts on this? Tony Hi Babak,

You bring some good points about the bullish case for stocks.

The thing that concerns me is the current COT report on the S&P 500 and other major indices. The commercial hedgers seem to be getting more net short on the S&P 500 along with the other indices.

Any thoughts on this?

Tony

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